The Nebraska Maneuver
People, not guardrails, blocked it. That's the lesson for what lies ahead.
While the country was looking the other way, Republicans attempted to make a last-minute change to the Electoral College that would have removed Kamala Harris’ most direct path to victory.
It failed.
But it should serve as an example of the kind of maneuvering to expect from Donald Trump as he tries to manipulate electoral rules to force his way back to power in the event he loses the election. And the way it played out should serve as a reminder that institutional guardrails will not protect against bad actors. Only individuals can defend the integrity of institutions.
The scheme in question involved convincing the Nebraska legislature to abandon the proportional method the state uses to award electoral votes. Only Nebraska and Maine employ this approach, whereby the plurality popular vote recipient in each of the state’s congressional districts is awarded one electoral vote, with the statewide plurality winner receiving two electoral votes.
In 2020, this resulted in a split decision in both states: Trump won a single electoral vote from a conservative rural district in Maine and Biden won a single electoral vote from the Omaha metropolitan area. Harris maintains a comfortable polling lead in that Nebraska district and should be considered the favorite to win it.
So Republicans got to work trying to change the rules. At the direction of Donald Trump, they made an attempt last spring to get Nebraska to revert to the statewide winner-take-all system it had prior to 1992—the system used by 48 states and the District of Columbia. The effort did not succeed, and if it had, Maine threatened to follow suit and nullify the effect of Nebraska’s actions by removing Trump’s access to the single vote he is likely to pick up there.
However, that threat of retribution lost its potency this week because of a provision in Maine law requiring 90 days to pass before legislation can take effect. We are now under 90 days before the Electoral College is scheduled to meet.
Republicans were ready.
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