The World According to Trump
Republicans are running against a fictional Joe Biden and a made-up America. Will people eventually notice?
It’s as if every day is opposite day.
In the world as it exists, the American economy is strong and resilient, streets are becoming safer, the Mexican border is under control, domestic energy production is up, and our elderly president can travel across the ocean and back twice in a week while performing ceremonial and substantive duties without showing any signs of wear.
In the world according to Donald Trump, the American economy is a disaster, crime is rampant, the border is open, oil and gas production has been shut down, and we have a decrepit president who can’t attend public events without adult supervision.
Republicans didn’t want to run against the real Joe Biden, so they made one up.
And it’s keeping them afloat.
Because for too many people, the fictional Biden is the one they think about when they tell pollsters how they’re going to vote.
There are plenty of statistics to support my claims about what’s actually happening in America, and I won’t dwell on them here. You can look at any major economic indicator that’s historically correlated with presidential electoral performance—job creation, unemployment, GDP, wage growth, even inflation, and conclude the incumbent is poised to be re-elected. Same with crime statistics. And border traffic. And oil and renewable energy production.
But that’s not what many voters believe. Perceptions of the state of the economy are largely negative, even though large majorities say their personal financial situation is good or excellent. Concerns about crime are up. Same with immigration.
Trump has been pushing a catastrophic view of America, but he isn’t exactly the most credible messenger. His story about a failed country has some traction because enough people are predisposed to believe it.
But why?
The disconnect is so wide-ranging that you would be hard-pressed to find a single explanation for it. But we can look at several factors that could be contributing to why people hold beliefs at odds with factual evidence and their personal experiences.
The inflation hangover
This is the explanation you’re most likely to hear in political circles. As a statistical matter, the rate of inflation is down, but people feel worse off because prices are higher than they used to be. Democrats can talk up the economy all they want, but encouraging inflation statistics are meaningless when you’re paying $4.25 for a gallon of milk. If anything, talking up the economy too much could leave Biden vulnerable to looking out of touch.
While this explanation has common sense appeal—and may be factoring into the national mood—it’s at odds with the positive things people are saying about their own finances. And it’s at odds with how wage growth has been outpacing inflation for over a year.
Our tattered social fabric
It’s hard to feel optimistic when the times are so heavy. We are now more than a decade into the political divisions that pit the red team against the blue team, wearing us down as a country and tearing us apart.
The Trump years were relentless and exhausting, and they ended in a global pandemic that upended our lives. As a country, once we declared the pandemic over we collectively decided to stuff it down the memory hole instead of addressing the dislocation it caused and continues to cause. I have no proof, but I believe this contributes to a sense of national trauma.
Because as a country we are acting like we’re traumatized. Some look nostalgically on the Trump years as a better time, forgetting the chaos and how differently they felt four years ago.
Age equals ineptitude
Age can be associated with frailty. It can also be associated with wisdom.
Biden seems to be aware of this, and has been attempting to turn his advanced years into an asset by emphasizing his decades of experience. For this effort to be successful, he needs to overcome an information gap about his record. If people aren’t aware of what he’s accomplished, they’re less likely to credit his expertise for bringing meaningful changes to their lives.
He is also hampered by looking old. This may be unfair, but Biden’s low-key demeanor and pale appearance make it easier for Republicans to paint him as feeble. Setting aside the ridiculous face paint and hair weave, Donald Trump exudes energy—angry, unhinged energy, but energy nonetheless. And our instinct is to associate energy with youth.
If people are predisposed to see Biden as shaky and doddering, it’s easy to understand why he isn’t getting credit for his accomplishments. Negative associations about age can filter the way people perceive whatever positive news they may be exposed to about the economy and how they assign credit. In this view, instead of people reassessing questions about Biden’s competence in light of new information, they reassess new information in light of their views about his competence.
Biden isn’t interesting
Biden’s pledge to bring competence back to government dovetails with a style that rejects grandstanding. While this has been a refreshing change after a president who never shut up, it has also muted Biden as a political figure.
A network of critiques factor into the “Biden is boring” explanation. Sympathetic partisan critics might say Biden went too far in downplaying his accomplishments and could stand to engage in a bit more bravado. They may also say Biden hasn’t been an effective messenger for himself. Media critics might note that quiet accomplishments and good news never make it into legacy media coverage the way bad news does.
These assessments all point to the same thing. Biden’s governing expertise is buried by his governing approach, while his opponent—who has no clue how to govern but makes a lot of noise—draws a lot of attention.
A fragmented and malicious media environment
Compounding Biden’s disadvantage with traditional news coverage is an information environment that would challenge even the most effective communicator. Long gone are the days when everyone got their news from a few centralized sources. Today’s information silos are largely impervious to broadcast messages, making it easier for us to live inside echo chambers of our own creation nourished by algorithms that feed us more of what we like.
Malicious actors surreptitiously promote negative material through those chambers to exploit our divisions. These can be amplified by media outfits operating on behalf of the Republican party. Just last week, right-wing media aired an edited video that made Biden look lost and clueless for wandering away from G7 leaders when he was actually greeting skydivers who were out of the frame.
These factors—and no doubt others I didn’t mention—give power to the ugly, imaginary world created by Donald Trump. That might not be the case if we had better information, filtered it differently, and weren’t predisposed to negativity. But we don’t and we don’t and we are.
Can this be overcome? Not to the degree where a Reagan-style landslide is possible. Like Biden, Reagan at 73 was widely considered old in 1984, but he was swept to re-election on a wave of strong economic conditions that he effectively branded morning in America.
But Biden does not need to win 49 states. He just needs 270 electoral votes. To that end, his greatest ally may turn out to be his opponent. Because while people may be misinformed about the world Biden has created, they are largely uninformed about the world Trump is promising.
Trump’s world is a dark and backward-facing place of anger and personal vengeance. Outside MAGA, there will be little appetite for it once people start to focus on what Trump is offering. It falls to Biden’s well-financed, well-organized campaign to make sure they do.
Biden may not be appreciated for his accomplishments and he may be old, but elections always come down to contrasts. Biden is looking ahead with optimism and hope, where history shows us the country usually lands, even in ugly times.
You forgot to mention Russia’s disinformation operations.