The will-he-or-won’t-he Joe Biden saga appeared to be moving toward a resolution while I was packing for my summer vacation, with leaks to the press signaling he was facing close to insurmountable pressure to step down.
So, before I left, I wrote this piece on my reaction to Biden’s departure, even though it hadn’t happened yet.
After the debate, Biden’s candidacy assumed new risks. His age not only became a central consideration in the election, for weeks it was the consideration. And the discussion was not simply about the fact that he is 81. We already knew that. It was about whether he has the capacity to serve four more years. Since this is an unknowable question and therefore something Biden could never satisfactorily address, it took on a life of its own. And as it mushroomed in importance, it raised questions about whether Biden could satisfactorily prosecute the case against Donald Trump and win the election.
Once the issue about Biden became electability, congressional Democrats who have to share a ballot with him became nervous. Since it doesn’t take much for Democrats to become nervous, much of this looked like an over-reaction. Public polling showed the race to be largely stable since the debate. Biden appeared competitive. He may have lost a point or two, but those voters were largely moving to undecided rather than to Trump. Biden could have won them back once the focus shifted to the dangers of a second Trump presidency.
But as the questions about Biden’s fitness burned out of control, it became harder to see how the focus was going to shift back to Trump. Yes, there is going to be a convention soon where the question of who will represent the Democratic party will be settled. But the questions about Biden were not going away. His every word and statement was going to be scrutinized for signs that he’s losing it. Anything resembling his first debate performance could have been fatal to his efforts, while less serious fumbles would have rekindled the now-entrenched problematic narratives about his abilities. Biden had no margin for error, and everyone makes errors.
My fundamental assessment of this election has always been that if it is a referendum on Trump he will lose, but if it is a referendum on Biden he will struggle. For the past few weeks, Biden has struggled. We had reached the point where Biden was never going to be able to keep the focus exclusively on Trump.
Democrats were in a freefall. Regardless of what happens next, it’s a relief that this long period of uncertainty is over.
The intensity of the frenzy felt unwarranted. I had trouble reconciling claims (often anonymous) that Democratic leaders believed Biden was a sure loser with the data I was seeing. Democrats were facing an enthusiasm gap, but as we’ve seen over the past few years, no one motivates Democrats and pro-democracy independents more than Donald Trump. If Democrats would only stop talking about themselves.
Those who wanted Biden to stay in the race could point to how he remained competitive after weeks of the worst press imaginable. If this wasn’t indicative of the strength of his candidacy, then it was a sign of how locked in the voters are.
In the end, though, fear of defeat resulted in the unprecedented decision of an incumbent president giving up re-nomination after he had earned it in the primaries.
Now what?
My hope is that Democrats have a plan for an orderly transfer to Kamala Harris. If they do not, or if the question of who will replace Biden remains open, we will have to have a different conversation when I return in early August. Democrats can survive passing the baton to Harris, but I would be deeply concerned about an open convention in late August or any other replacement candidate.
And I hope they are prepared to confront the anger and disappointment this decision is going to generate. Biden received millions of primary votes. Some will see this as the Democratic establishment overriding their will. Others will be furious that their choice was taken from them or will be unhappy about Harris.
Democratic leaders will have to come together quickly to address these wounds, which are largely of their creation. They will need to address the pushback from voters and give spurned supporters time to heal. Biden himself can play a big role in this, as he is now the elder statesman of the party even if he is no longer its leader.
Harris will attract a different coalition. She has spent a lot of time on college campuses and has appeal to younger voters, who until now have been largely checked out of this election. There is also potential upside with voters of color. But she risks losing voters who would have considered voting for a white man. We have never elected a woman to the presidency, no less a woman of color. Now we have no choice. The fate of democracy rests on her shoulders, and Democrats are now asking the country to do something it has never done before as the only way to preserve our freedom.
If this is disconcerting, it is also clarifying. Having Harris at the top of the ticket puts the choice this November in stark relief. On one side is the young, multicultural emerging America—the country Biden promised to deliver us to as a bridge from the past. On the other side is a reactionary movement that wants to restore that past and then some, to move the country back to the nineteenth century by force.
I have long wondered if we were ready to make that choice. I would have been more comfortable putting it before the electorate of 2028 or 2032, but we no longer have the luxury of waiting. Biden and the Democrats have made their decision. The future has arrived early.
Kamala Harris is a talented and capable politician. Her elevation to the top of the ticket should generate a level of enthusiasm that’s been missing from our politics. Democrats need to come together around her candidacy, encourage that enthusiasm, and prosecute the case against MAGA.
The game plan for this election has been torn up and tossed out, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. Through all the chaos, a majority of the country still sees Donald Trump as a dangerous and unacceptable choice. Harris has the political and prosecutorial skills to make that the driving narrative of the next few months. If she succeeds, she can win this election and make history in the process.
Chris Bowers will be here to comment on significant developments as they occur.