2026 Can Be a Transformational Election

Photo by Joshua Sortino on Unsplash

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The 2025 elections should make it clear to Democrats that something big is changing in our politics.

Democrats have a generational opportunity to take advantage of the many ways Donald Trump is damaging the nation and losing the electorate. They have a chance to embark on something different in next year’s midterm elections by establishing a new direction for the country that looks nothing like the stale politics of the past forty-five years.

Voters are making it clear they will listen to any candidate who takes their concerns seriously. They are sending an unambiguous message that they want government to prioritize their needs and not the needs of the wealthy few. They are rejecting Republicans, Trump and the MAGA experiment.

The 2026 campaign will unfold amidst the chaotic consequences of demolition governance. And now that Donald Trump’s wrecking ball is taking aim at his own coalition, Democrats will have the best opportunity in decades to make the case for responsive government, honest government, and good government.

It will take time for a new direction to emerge. Nations do not generally change overnight. But the midterms can be the first in a series of elections that could bring about a genuine political realignment in response to the smoldering wreckage Trump will one day leave behind.

For the upcoming election cycle, the policies Democrats propose will be less consequential than general advocacy for a new direction. Specifics will be more critical in the presidential campaign, when Democrats will ask the public for the opportunity to govern.

That’s because even if Democrats take back both houses of Congress next year, they cannot be a governing party until they control the White House two years later. For now, they are leaving a marker telling voters that—unlike Trump and Republicans—Democrats will be on their side if given a chance to lead.

Democrats have the opportunity to reach voters who in the past would not consider them. If they succeed, they will bring about a landslide election that can be an important first step in reshaping the Democratic party coalition—and with it the nation.

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Most midterm elections are ordinary. Some are waves. But the rare few usher in transformational moments that affect our politics long after they happen.

Years like 1974, 1994 and 2010 were transformational. They saw waves that drowned one party and changed Congress as an institution. The changes brought about by these cycles helped shape the course of our politics by dramatically altering how Congress operated.

The large Watergate class of 1974 upended the congressional seniority system, stripping power from longstanding committee chairs and allowing newly elected members to rise quickly through the institution. With their newfound power, the large mass of reformist Democrats instituted ethics changes to make government more transparent.

The Gingrich Revolution of 1994 ended forty years of Democratic House rule with a scorched earth campaign against the Democratic majority. Gingrich brought this take-no-prisoners philosophy to his speakership, breaking down longstanding congressional norms about respect and courtesy that led to the lasting deterioration of Congress as a collegial place conducive to compromise.

The 2010 “Tea Party” wave entrenched the Republican party in an anti-government populist politics sponsored by deep-pocketed interests that rejected establishment party leaders. Republicans picked up a massive 62 seats that year, ushering in a period of deep gridlock and beginning the Republican descent into Trumpism, insurrection, and authoritarianism.

Each of these elections had a profound effect on the workings of Congress. But none of them served as the basis for a full-fledged realignment because larger political forces did not permit it.

Watergate happened during a time of Republican ascendency, and although initially it looked like the party would be brought down by Nixon’s presidency, the post-Watergate reaction interrupted rather than redirected our politics. Between Nixon’s election in 1968 and Clinton’s in 1992, Republicans won all but one presidential election, and the Democratic sweep of ‘74 couldn’t stop the Reagan revolution six years later.

Similarly, the Republican landslides of ‘94 and ‘10 served to intensify rather than change political currents. The Gingrich revolution coincided with the movement of southern Democrats to the Republican party, which accelerated the rightward shift in the country. The Tea Party election foreshadowed and set up the final phase of the Reagan regime, which is playing out now as MAGA governance.

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This moment is different because the public is looking for a new direction. Trump is being repudiated in the streets and at the polls. Democrats are winning elections by promising to reverse the economic policies of the administration and address an affordability problem brought on by policies favoring the ultra wealthy at the expense of everyone else.

Over the course of next year, I expect their messaging will expand to encompass the many ways Trump is trampling on our security to enrich himself and his friends. As we saw last spring when Elon Musk became a symbol of the destructive privilege exercised by the select few, political space opens when the public is focused on the actual cause of their disaffection. The potential release of the Epstein files could further expand this space as people begin to focus on the special judicial treatment afforded members of the privileged class.

Republicans will counter with deflection, trying to re-focus public ire on immigrants and people of color. But it won’t work in this political climate. It didn’t work in 2025 and it’s hard to see how that changes.

That’s a big clue that something new is afoot.

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Of course, bringing about meaningful change will be necessary in the long run to keep Democrats in power as the majority party in a new political alignment. They eventually will need to prove capable of enacting policies that were impossible under the old rules of engagement.

Policies that address what people are saying they need to improve their lives.

Policies like affordable healthcare, a livable minimum wage, a wider social safety net, and higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for it.

Policies once successfully dismissed as radical that in an altered context will just seem like common sense.

But before this can happen, Democrats need to regain control of governing institutions coopted by individuals with oligarchical intentions and reshape them to function in a twenty-first century democracy.

The transformation of Congress back into a functioning body would be a key first step toward the reform of our institutions and the subsequent ability to implement dramatic policy change.

If a new direction is to come to pass—if we are to see a drastically different policy environment emerge from a future Washington—institutional change of the sort that a midterm upheaval can have on Congress is an important step forward.

Realigning our politics is a longterm project.

But it starts now.