Anatomy of a Wave

Five things to look for ahead of next year's midterm elections

Photo by Matt Paul Catalano on Unsplash

It’s only April 2025—some nineteen months before the next national elections—but the elements that will define the upcoming cycle are emerging.

Already, we are seeing signs that next year could bring about a dramatic reaction to what Donald Trump has wrought on the country and the world.

It’s not unusual for the party out of power in the White House to score big electoral gains during the midterms. In fact, as Chris Bowers has pointed out, the opposition party has netted the number of seats Democrats need to reclaim the House next year in all but four midterm elections dating back to 1882. That’s partly because the Republican margin in the House is tiny, and partly because the out party almost always rebounds after losing the presidency.

Still, saying the party out of power is favored to do well in the midterms is different than saying they will win in a wave.

Wave elections are their own phenomenon. They are those rare elections where voters back one party to such a lopsided extent that you get results you wouldn’t expect in a normal year. These are elections where the favored party makes deep inroads into hostile territory and normally safe incumbents tumble unexpectedly.

The 1994 midterm wave was large enough to take down Tom Foley, the Speaker of the House, and Dan Rostenkowski, a 36-year veteran who as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee was one of the most powerful members of Congress. It was strong enough to wash away a Democratic majority that had controlled the House for four decades. That’s what a wave can do.

Like ocean waves that start in open water, electoral waves can begin to form long before Election Day. I like to look at five factors to assess whether we are likely entering a wave year. While not predictive of what will happen, all five are preconditions to a wave. In other words, if all of them are present as we head into the final stretch of an election, we should not be surprised if we see an unusual outcome.

Although it’s early, we’re already seeing evidence that three of the five are materializing.