Ask Us Anything
Making it through this, Republicans joining forces with Democrats, and impeachment
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The number one question that so many people seem to be asking about this current political moment is, “Are we going to be okay?” What’s the simplest answer you have when someone asks you that?
(Chris) Much as I would like to, I can’t promise you this one. There is just nothing that ever guarantees the future will be OK. The best we can do is to sort out the things that we, as individuals, control from the things that we cannot control. From that point, we need to use our best judgement on what to do when it comes to the actions we do control, and to make plans for what we would do in the event of various possible contingencies. From there, it is best to accept all outcomes with equanimity.
FWIW, I actually do think we—as in, the people of the United States—will be OK. As I have written in the past, I don’t believe that Trump has the support he needs to overthrow our democracy, and his second term in office will be over before you know it. Also, as I wrote last month, I remain optimistic about the future, as we are wealthier, longer lived, more tolerant and have access to more technological wonders than at any other time in human history.
So that I may gauge Matt’s current optimism, was Matt optimistic about the 2024 presidential election—and if so, how much more or less optimistic is he about the 2026 elections?
(Matt) That’s a fair question. I would characterize myself as having been nervously optimistic about the 2024 election. Democrats went into the year with an incumbent president who was presiding over a statistically strong economy, which historically pointed to favorable outcomes even if people were broadly unhappy with their personal circumstances. I was aware that Biden had never established an emotional connection with the American people and that his age was going to be an issue, but he was running against an opponent who had been rejected just a few years earlier and lost the popular vote the time before that. Based on this history and contemporaneous polling, my operating assumption was that Trump had a ceiling of around 47 percent. That projected to a close election but one Biden could win.
My concern spiked once the age issue began consuming the Democratic party, because it left Democrats without good options. Biden quickly became non-viable once he lost the support of donors and party insiders and that threw the election into chaos. The quick baton pass to Harris was the best of a set of bad options available at that point, but as I wrote that summer, while the country was coming around to accept a woman of color as president, I wasn’t convinced the 2024 electorate was there yet. So I was nervous.
Harris was given an impossible assignment and she did remarkably well. We can look back in hindsight and identify all sorts of strategic and tactical things she might have done differently, but she was refueling the plane while it was in the air. That kept me on the edge, but I thought until the end that she had done enough to pull it out.
I missed something important. Around the world, incumbent parties were going down to defeat because of how people were responding to shocks from the post-Covid economy. Parties of the left, right, and center fell victim to voter unrest, and the United States was no different. When you’re in a change environment there is little incumbent parties can do to defend themselves. People will turn to an alternative, even if the only viable alternative is Donald Trump. That was enough to bump him a couple of points over his previous ceiling, which made the difference.
The political environment is dramatically different today. The electorate still wants change, only now the restlessness and anger is being aimed at Trump and his party. A wave appears to be building, Trump is incapable of abandoning policies that are making people angry, and Republicans have proved unwilling to confront him. It won’t take much for Democrats to overpower the thin Republican House margins, and while the Senate map is challenging there will be sufficient competitive Republicans seats to make a Democratic takeover possible. So—yes—I am much more optimistic about this year’s election than I was two years ago.
Can we get enough Republicans to join forces and remove the current regime?
(Chris) No. However, as I outlined in my article “The Two Essential Strategies for Reducing Trump’s Power,” I do believe that you can lower Donald Trump’s approval rating among Republicans to the point where powerful Republicans are willing to publicly criticize Trump, and join with Democrats to use their power to constrain Trump. Further, I believe that there is enough support for free and fair elections that Trump will not be able to just choose his successor, no matter what the voters want.
To summarize:
Can you get enough Republicans to remove Trump from power before the end of his term? No.
Can you get enough Republicans to criticize and restrain him in ways that would meaningfully reduce Trump’s political power? Yes.
Will we be able to have a free and fair election to choose Trump’s successor? Yes.
What do you think are the chances that after the midterms we can get Trump impeached and actually out of office? He continues to act maliciously and beyond the constitutional rights of the president.
(Matt) This is one of several impeachment questions we received this week. The short answer is that he is almost certain to be impeached after the midterms, and he is just as certain to avoid conviction in the Senate—whether or not Democrats take the majority. As Chris noted in the above response, while Republicans may decide that restraining Trump is critical to their self-preservation, it’s difficult to imagine a world where enough of them will willingly turn Trump out of power. The math just isn’t there.
Remember, while impeachment in the House only requires a majority vote, it will take a two-thirds vote of the Senate to remove Trump from office. Should Democrats take back the House this year—and as I mentioned above, I am optimistic they will—there will be ample reason and ample political pressure to impeach him. Donald Trump has committed so many impeachable offenses that the challenge for Democrats at that point will be deciding which to prosecute.
Another reader asked if impeaching Trump would be a wise thing to do, assuming that he will not be convicted. I believe it is. Impeachment is about more than removal from office. It’s about illuminating the crimes Trump is committing, communicating a compelling narrative about them, and standing up for the rule of law. I would even go further: not impeaching Trump for what he has done once Democrats have the power to do it would be a dereliction of duty.
Every day I get requests for money from organizations related to the Democratic party. They all claim that a donation is absolutely necessary. How do I decide where a donation will really do some good?
(Chris) This can indeed be quite tricky! We live in a very large country, with nearly 10,000 elected officials at the state legislative level and higher. Unless you are willing to dedicate a significant portion of your time every day to becoming an elections expert, it can be difficult to sort the crucial campaigns from the less important ones.
As such, please allow me to suggest a different solution. Instead of donating to any of the fundraising emails you receive, I have created an Act Blue page that allows you, with a single donation, to support the eventual Democratic nominee in all winnable races for House, Senate, Governor, Attorney General and state legislative seats everywhere in the country in 2026.
On this Act Blue page you will find the various national Democratic Party committees tasked with winning the House of Representatives (the DCCC), the Senate (DSCC), governorships (DGA), state legislative races (DLCC), attorney general races (DAGA), and Bowers Kerbel Media, which is the parent organization of Wolves and Sheep and the Bowers News Media news and activism email list.
Thus, with a single donation, you can contribute to the eventual Democratic nominee in literally every major winnable race nationwide between now and November 2026. (Note: The amount you give to each individual entity can be adjusted on the ActBlue page. You can give $0 to an organization if you do not wish to donate to it.)
You can even make this a recurring monthly donation by choosing the “Yes, Count Me In” button under the “Make it Monthly” option. Doing so would actually wrap up your political donations for the rest of the year!