Ceilings
One assumption may determine how the election turns out
In 2016, Donald Trump won the Electoral College with 46.1% of the vote.
In 2020, Donald Trump lost the Electoral College with 46.8% of the vote.
On July 24, just after Joe Biden exited the 2024 race, the fivethirtyeight.com polling average showed Donald Trump with 44% of the vote.
As September ended, he was averaging 45.7% of the vote.
Are you starting to see a pattern?
Despite the instability he creates, Trump’s level of support has been a constant in a sea of chaos. No matter what happens—and a lot has happened—Trump has always occupied a narrow range of support somewhere around 46%.
This election season has seen a string of unprecedented twists. The conviction of a major party nominee on 34 felony counts. An incumbent president stepping down as he was preparing to claim his party’s nomination. The late emergence of a new ticket propelled by a previously untapped aspirational well of joy. Two assassination attempts.
And where is he? 46%.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris floats above him at 48% or 49%, and frequently touches 50% or higher in recent polls.
So the question that may hold the key to what’s going to happen next month is this:
