Convergence
What Senate and gubernatorial contests may be telling us about the presidential race
Here’s a puzzle for you.
In the Arizona Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego is consistently outpolling his Republican challenger Kari Lake—by a lot. If you look at polls from the past month, the pattern is clear. Gallego is up by six, eight, nine points or more. His challenger—a well-known election denier who contended she was the lawful governor of Arizona despite being defeated for that office in 2022—is so odious that even partisan Republican pollsters show her trailing.
At the same time, the presidential race in Arizona is a dead heat. Polling shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump running neck-and-neck.
The question is: can both these things be true?
