Could We Actually Elect the President by National Popular Vote in 2028?
Let's take a look
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Is it actually possible that we could elect the President of the United States by national popular vote in the next presidential election? For the first time in nearly 60 years, the answer is actually yes, even though the odds are still against it.
Here is the situation.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
For the past 20 years, there has been an effort to adopt a national popular vote for president without the need for an amendment to the Constitution. It’s called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, or NPVIC for short.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a legally binding agreement between states, known as an “interstate compact,” to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. Since an interstate compact is an agreement between states, it is passed by state laws, not federal laws or constitutional amendments. Interstate compacts, while obscure, are 100% constitutional, and over 250 of them are active today.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will only go into effect once states totaling 270 or more electoral votes have joined by July 20 in the year of the next presidential election. So, if we are going to elect the president by national popular vote in the next presidential election, that means July 20, 2028.
Getting to 270
As of this writing, states totaling 209 electoral votes have joined the compact, meaning that states totaling 61 additional electoral votes are needed in order for it to go into effect and for the next presidential election to be decided by the national popular vote. According to NationalPopularVote.com, the states and jurisdiction that have joined are:
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and D.C.
Now, while electing the president by national popular vote has not historically been a partisan issue, since the 2000 and 2016 elections it has become one. So far, only blue and some purple states where Democrats have had trifecta control of state government have joined the compact. As such, it is safe to assume that trifecta Democratic control of a blue or purple state is a prerequisite for convincing state legislators and governors to join the NPVIC.
To reach the necessary 61 electoral votes for the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact to take effect, the best prospect by far comes in Virginia, with 13 electoral votes. Virginia now has a Democratic trifecta state government. Both branches of the state legislature have passed legislation to join the NPVIC. Gov. Abigail Spanberger supports the measure and is expected to sign it any day now (and may even have signed it by the time you read this article). That will bring the NPVIC to 222 electoral votes, only 48 shy.
So, where could the other 48 electoral votes come from? The best chances are from these five states:
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Given the math at play, what is specifically required is that both Pennsylvania and Michigan join, and that two of the other three (Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin) also join.
Here is why this could happen in 2028
Democrats currently lack trifecta government in all five of the respective states. However, a Democratic trifecta is actually within reach in all five of these states after the 2026 elections, especially given the current strongly pro-Democratic nationwide electoral environment. Here is a breakdown of the current partisan makeup of state government in those five states:
Arizona: Democratic governor, 17-13 Republican majority in the state Senate and 33-27 Republican majority in the state House.
Pennsylvania: Democratic governor, 27-23 Republican majority in the state Senate, 100-98 Democratic majority in the state House.
Michigan (15 electoral votes): Democratic governor, 19-18 Democratic majority in the state Senate, 58-52 Republican majority in the state House
Nevada (6 electoral votes): Republican governor, 13-8 Democratic majority in the state Senate, 27-15 Democratic majority in the state House.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Democratic governor, 18-15 Republican majority in the state Senate, 54-45 Republican majority in the state House.
These are all swing states, and in a big wave year like 2026 may be, it is within the realm of possibility that Democrats will capture trifecta government in all five of them. If that were to happen, then they have 18 months to join the National Popular vote before the July 20, 2028 deadline.
Yes, but…
While it is technically possible that the National Popular Interstate Compact could take effect before the 2028 elections, there are also a few things that could go wrong and result in the next presidential election being decided according to our current, longstanding practices.
First, Democrats need a nearly clean sweep in all five of the states listed above. They have to secure a trifecta in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, and can only fail to do so in one of the other three (Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin). Even in a wave year, that is a tall order.
Second, even if Democrats secure trifecta control in enough state governments after the 2026 elections to make it possible for the NPVIC to go into effect for 2028, they actually have to pass the state laws to make it happen. This has not always been a slam dunk, even when Democrats have trifecta government. Some Democrats get cold feet, and others are simply opposed to changing the way we elect presidents.
Third, there is always the Supreme Court to worry about. While there are over 250 interstate compacts in effect today, national Republicans are certain to sue over this one. I am not a constitutional lawyer, and I honestly do not know what the odds are of the current Supreme Court upholding the National Popular Vote Compact.
Still, for the first time in the 20 year campaign to make the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact a reality, enactment before the next presidential election has at least become a possibility. Here is a petition you can sign to show your support for making it happen.
Notes on this petition:
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This petition will be delivered to allies working in the states to elect the president by National Popular vote
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I have been saying this for years, why don’t we just elect the president? Whoever gets the most votes wins? this bullshit electoral college that’s why we’re at where we’re at now!! And it infuriates me!
Didn't know this. My bad. Thanks