Donald Trump said that he doesn’t want to be a dictator, “except for day one.”
That day is today.
As we witness the formal transfer of power—peacefully this time, because Trump won—we enter what promises to be a frenetic period in which the former former guy is likely to use executive power to establish his authority by overwhelming our circuits. We should be prepared for the next few weeks to be a lot.
We can predict much of what’s ahead by virtue of having lived through the first Trump administration. We know it will be a nonstop assault on our nervous systems as Trump makes proclamations on social media at all hours of the day and night. We know it will be chaotic, as Trump changes his mind and changes direction seemingly at random. We know there will be profound levels of corruption that work to the benefit of the incumbent. We know the extent of this corruption will be exceeded only by historic levels of incompetence. We know Trump will show no interest in the details of governing and will spend much of his time playing golf and posting on social media. We know Republican office-holders will pretend to be fine with all this, or not notice that it’s happening.
At the same time, the second Trump presidency will differ in meaningful ways from the first. Trump did not know his way around the executive branch the first time, and he didn’t have an agenda. This time he does, or at least he is surrounded by people who do. They plan to move quickly to impose their will by intimidating those who dare oppose them.
That effort started months ago, but it will now go into overdrive.
The contrasts between the two administrations are well represented by the official portraits of Trump then and now. The first term portrait depicts him as sort of a smiling buffoon—more reality television star than president. His second term portrait evokes his Fulton County mugshot—depicting him as sinister, angry, and aggrieved.
How this will manifest is hard to predict, but it is probably fair to say that the way he starts will likely determine the trajectory of his administration.
If Trump successfully establishes himself as the dominant figure he aspires to be in his portrait, he will have a chance of thwarting his opposition before it can fight back. This is essential to his plan to present himself as a fearsome strongman.
If the barrage of executive actions we can expect from him in the coming days is met with effective legal and political pushback, it will weaken him and make him look small, a crazy man pretending to be a strongman.
Anyone who’s been paying attention to the transition recognizes that he’s off to a bad start. Elon Musk and Steve Bannon have gone to war. Matt Gaetz’ nomination as attorney general went up in flames. Congress ignored Trump’s demands to raise the debt ceiling despite his threats of political retribution. At a point when incoming presidents typically realize their highest levels of public support, Trump’s favorability is below fifty percent and lags his popular vote margin from two months ago by more than three points.
On the heels of this blundering start comes the decision to move today’s events indoors because extreme temperatures are making Washington freeze over.
If you’re one for dark irony, the ceremony will be performed in the Capitol rotunda.
If you are one for omens, the change makes him look like a downsized dictator.
This is a bigger deal than it may sound, because of how it restricts the scope of a moment when Trump has his best opportunity to put his imprint of fear on the trappings of the presidency.
The last time a presidential inauguration was moved indoors because of extreme temperatures was in 1985, when Ronald Reagan was inaugurated for his second term. Without the pomp of the capitol steps and the grandeur of the National Mall, the event was nothing special, just a moment of continuity from his first term.
Today of course is nothing like that moment, but there is no way to keep the event from feeling diminished. Losing that podium in front of the National Mall denies Trump a visual he covets so deeply that it drove him to lie about the size of his inaugural crowd eight years ago. It takes away an important element of symbolism from someone who intends to use the transfer of power to establish his ability to lord over everyone.
The change of venue may be a minor detail in the broad scheme of things, but it matters. Anything that reduces Trump matters, especially right now as he tries to set a domineering tone for his autocratic presidency.
It matters on Day One, as it will matter every day of this outlaw administration.
trump will take up no space in my head today. He is diminished and reduced to an annoying case of pestilence that we will treat with a good dose of democracy shared by friends who are prepared to fight and win.
I agree. Bring on the lawyers for the people and resist all that the would be tyrant would like to do. Delay is on our side. We must fight back to keep what we have.