Diminishing Returns

Deflect and escalate isn't working for Donald Trump

Turns out these aren’t so easy to wag

On Tuesday, MAGA-world was busy nominating Donald Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize over his decision to bomb Iranian nuclear development sites.

Also on Tuesday, Trump berated Israel and Iran for not adhering to a ceasefire agreement that appeared to exist largely in his head.

On Wednesday, CNN was reporting a U.S. intelligence assessment that the air strikes fell far short of destroying Iran’s capability to build a nuclear weapon. In fact, Iran’s efforts may only have been set back a few months.

Also on Wednesday, the public verdict on the bombing started to become clear. It may explain why Trump was lashing out.

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On Monday, we talked about the politics of wagging the dog and the politics of rally effects.

I noted how Trump tries to deflect attention from his failures by escalating elsewhere. So when he was being pummeled in the press by Elon Musk, it was not surprising to see him deflect from the situation by militarizing a small immigration protest in Los Angeles. After the public rejected his actions—and after millions turned out to protest his royal inclinations while he was left alone at his pathetic military birthday party—it was equally unsurprising that he joined the Israeli air strikes on Iran, where he could change the subject and claim credit for what appeared to be a successful operation.

I also noted how the public often reacts when a president unilaterally exercises military force in a tense international conflict, suggesting Trump could benefit from a brief rally but conditioning that on broader opinion trends specific to this presidency and this action. I suggested that Trump’s historically low job performance along with deep public resistance to using force against Iraq could temper the response to the attack and prevent Trump from getting the boost he craved. I thought we would likely see Republicans rally behind him but that it would be surprising to see people who were predisposed to dislike Trump’s performance in general and the attack in particular move his way.

The early returns are now in, so we can compare the actual public response to this anticipated reaction.

And the evidence is telling us that, like everything else this president does, the public is not with him.