Do Republicans Have a Breaking Point?
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A longtime reader recently asked me what I thought of the possibility that Donald Trump will become such a liability as we approach the midterm elections that Republicans will decide it’s best to jettison him through impeachment and conviction. This reader asserted (I believe accurately) that Trump will never step down, and noted that political support can crumble quickly, like it did for Richard Nixon in his final days.
Now, Chris and I are on record as saying we don’t believe Republicans will ever remove Trump from office. But I thought the question was worthy of exploration. Everyone has a breaking point, and as I wrote on Monday, the public has already decided that the Trump administration is a failure. That’s a clear early warning sign.
And while it is hard to imagine any party—no less the MAGA Republican party—eating its own, we are living in a moment when the President of the United States is threatening to buy or invade Greenland. Atypical possibilities should be on the table.
In fact, Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska recently told reporters that he would lean toward impeachment if Trump actually invaded Greenland, and believed the votes would be there to convict. “There's so many Republicans mad about this,” Bacon said. “If he went through with the threats, I think it would be the end of his presidency.”
Maybe, maybe not. The pull of party unity has been known to change the behavior of angry representatives.
Still, Bacon’s comments raise an important point. Despite everything Trump has done in his second presidency, Greenland is the issue that would motivate him to consider impeachment. That may also be the case for other Republicans who have tolerated ICE and tariffs and Trump’s blatant profiteering without lifting a finger. Maybe they would draw the line at invading Greenland as well. Or maybe they would draw that line somewhere else.
But everyone draws the line somewhere.
If we look at the decision to impeach and convict as a pure cost-benefit assessment, removing a president of your party from office would require calculating that keeping him in power is the more detrimental move.
It takes a lot for representatives and senators to reach that conclusion.
To members, ousting the person who is party leader means turning against the voters who put him in power—voters who make up their base as well as his. Things would have to get really bad for that to be their preferred outcome.
What would it take for things to get that bad? The belief that standing behind the president is a sure path to political oblivion. The sense that it is better to blow up your coalition and take your chances with the fallout than go down to certain defeat.
Is that likely to happen before the midterms? Could the midterm results themselves make it happen?
Keeping in mind that I think impeachment and conviction is highly unlikely, here is my best assessment of the question.
