Episode 11: Fundamentals

I’ve been talking this week to a lot of people who are worried about Joe Biden’s prospects in November. They worry that he won’t be up to the task of running. They’re concerned about polls showing him behind. And with good reason they fear what it would mean to the country if Donald Trump returned to power. When they raise these issues, I mention that I’m not particularly concerned because the fundamentals of the election put Biden in a very strong position to compete and win—despite what we may be hearing on cable news or reading in the papers. Because I’ve had a version of this conversation several times over the past week, I thought there may be other Wolves and Sheep readers who are also concerned about the election. So I decided to devote this week’s podcast to a discussion of those fundamentals—which include both typical and atypical (MAGA-era) factors—and explain why most of them at this early stage are favorable to Biden. Consider this an early reality check that looks beyond horserace polls to the broader context in which the election will be decided.