Hidden Voters
Thoughts on voters who may be lurking in the shadows
I have said many times that if you tell me who’s going to vote, I can tell you who’s going to win. But as of now, no one really knows who’s going to vote.
Very soon the early voting data will give us clues about the size and shape of the 2024 electorate. Of course, we won’t have sufficient information to know the final outcome until Election Day, but we should be able to know if some of the necessary conditions for a Harris victory are taking shape by looking at how groups she needs to turn out are performing.
There are two groups in particular that I’ve been wondering about—two groups of voters that pollsters may be struggling to identify. If either group defies the turnout assumptions of polling models and emerges in larger numbers than expected it could lead to surprise results next month.
It’s interesting that both groups consist of Republican voters—even though they could pull the results in opposite directions.
