Let's Do This: Actually, Trump Is Losing in Court Far More Often Than He Is Winning
When the Supreme Court sides with Donald Trump, as it did earlier this week on mass layoffs (with even Justice Sotomayor concurring), and as it did two weeks ago in limiting the ability of lower federal courts to issue universal injunctions, it can seem to progressive activists that the judiciary is just another institution that is doing whatever it can to enable the Trump administration.
However, a closer look reveals that is not actually true. In fact, the Trump administration is actually losing in court far more often than it is winning.
According to a detailed count maintained by Allison Durkee of Forbes, of the 191 court rulings involving the Trump administration between January 20, 2025 and Tuesday, July 8, a total of 59 rulings have been in the government's favor, 114 rulings have been against it, and the remaining 18 rulings have been mixed. This means that, as of July 8, 60% of the lawsuits against the Trump administration have been successful, 31% have been unsuccessful, and 9% have produced mixed results.
Lawsuits against the Trump administration thus have a nearly 2-1 success rate so far. Given the tendency of progressive political activists—and honestly the news media and the Internet in general—to focus on the negative, this might come as a surprise to many of you. In fairness, it comes as a surprise to me, given the significant conservative edge in confirming federal judges over the past 25 years.
The courts are serving as a real check on Trump administration power. I like both what this says about the state of our democracy, and what it says about the value of good planning. I know very well that what a lot of activists want more than anything else is a type of highly emotive, expressive, and verbally aggressive politics that channels the anger they feel personally into the public sphere. However, the most successful efforts to rein in the authoritarian ambitions of the Trump administration have come instead from over a year of behind the scenes coordination and preparation among legal staff in roughly two dozen Democratic-controlled states.
Even the June Supreme Court ruling limiting the power of lower federal courts to issue universal injunctions did not deter the progressive legal advocates and Democratic state attorneys general who are leading the legal charge against the Trump administration's abuses of power. A closer look at the fine print of that Supreme Court ruling signaled some immediate possible workarounds that could be pursued by those who are fighting the administration, such as the use of class action lawsuits. So, those involved simply rolled up their sleeves and got back to work.
Monday in New Hampshire, a federal judge began hearing a class action lawsuit against Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship. A similar class action lawsuit against the citizenship birthright executive order is also underway in Maryland. If these cases are certified as class action lawsuits, they may well end up resulting in nationwide—or at least very broad—injunctions against the birthright citizenship executive order. In fact, and while I don't want to get ahead of myself here, this could even happen with the blessing of the Supreme Court.
I really love this. There is so much wailing and moaning and prophesying of doom in politics that it is a breath of fresh air to watch people quickly adapt to new obstacles thrown in their way and get back to their work of trying to make the world a better place.
This is the sort of thing that Democratic state attorneys general do. You won't see them leading big rallies or serving as social media influencers, but you will see the product of their work in courtrooms around the country. Democratic incumbents and candidates for state attorneys general are collectively supported by a national party committee called the Democratic Attorneys General Association, or DAGA. If you are looking for a way to concretely curtail the Trump administration's abuse of power, helping to elect more Democratic state attorneys general, and thus increasing the legal pressure against the Trump administration, is an excellent place to start.
Thank you for highlighting the work so many people are doing behind the scenes every day. I think the coordinated effort is amazing. While some weren't taking what Trump said on the campaign trail seriously, others knew he'd do what he said (or at least try) and prepared for it. I really enjoyed this article, and knowing this makes me sleep easier at night.
7/10/25: Dear Chris and Matt, Thanks for letting us know bout the block to the injunction against birthright citizenship. I think I expressed that right. Between your emails and The Smile I am getting through these four years somehow. How do you do such a well-researched publication? However I imagine once to attain enough education and expertise the source materials come to you (?) Have you ever lived in Washington DC?- Tim C.