Let's Do This: Another Huge Special Election Result for Democrats in Iowa Changes the 2026 Electoral Landscape
Back on January 28, in the special election for Iowa's 35th Senate district, the Democratic candidate won 52%-48% in a district that Donald Trump won 60%-39%. This shift of 25 points allowed Democrat Mike Zimmer, a former public school principal, to turn a deep red seat blue.
Now this week, on Tuesday, March 11, in the special election for Iowa's 100th state House district, the Democratic candidate narrowly lost 52%-48% in a district that Trump won 62%-36% back in November 2024. While it was not quite enough to flip the district blue, it is still an eye-popping 24-point shift toward Democrats.
According to results compiled by The Downballot, across the 12 special elections for state legislative seats held so far in 2025, Democrats have performed, on the mean, 9.7 points better than Kamala Harris did in November 2024—and 10.5 points better on the median.
A uniform shift of this magnitude around the country would have won Harris the election at levels similar to Barack Obama in 2008. It would have allowed Democrats to take a big majority in the House of Representatives, winning somewhere between 15 and 30 additional seats. In fact, it would also have allowed Democrats and Independents to win Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, Nebraska and Texas, thus securing a 52-48 majority in that chamber for Democrats.
Of course, shifts in the popular vote do not happen uniformly. There is a tendency for shifts in party preference to be more pronounced in some demographic, geographic and ideological groupings than in others. This has also been the case so far in 2025. According to the Downballot data I linked to above, the shift from November 2024 results in the 12 state legislative special elections held so far in 2025 have ranged from plus 6 points for Republicans to plus 25 points for Democrats.
Notably, the two largest shifts toward Democrats have both taken place in Iowa. This is important, because Sen. Joni Ernst is up for re-election in 2026. Ernst won re-election by 6.6% in 2020, in a good year for Democrats nationally. However, given the results of 2025 special elections so far in Iowa, there is now reason to believe that Ernst is vulnerable in 2026.
This is important, because if Iowa is in play in 2026—and it is hard not to think so after these two special election results—then the Senate is in play in 2026 as well. Here is how.
Democrats need to net four seats to win back control of the chamber. Admittedly, the map of states holding Senate elections in 2026 does not look promising for Democrats at first glance. Here is Wikipedia's map of the landscape:
Source: Wikipedia
Democrats will have difficult defenses in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. However, if there is a sizable national shift toward Democrats in 2026—and every indication from special elections so far suggests there will be—then those states might not be all that difficult to defend in 18 or 19 months time.
Maine and North Carolina are two Republican-held, purple states where Democrats could score pickups, although admittedly Susan Collins has proven difficult to beat during her career. Sen. Collins even recorded a solid 8.6% victory in 2020, which was a good year for Democrats nationwide.
In addition to Maine, Iowa and North Carolina, a fourth potential pickup opportunity could come in Ohio. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is still apparently considering a run (see Cleveland.com and The New Republic). Alaska also comes to mind as a possibility, but unfortunately the only Democratic candidate who might be able to win, former Rep. Mary Peltola, seems to (understandably) have her eyes on the governorship instead. Also, while some might think that Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear has a chance to pick up Mitch McConnell's seat in Kentucky, I'm dubious.
Even so, with a clean sweep in Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio, there is at least a plausible, if difficult, path for Democrats to win back the Senate in 2026. While I am quite bullish on Democratic chances to win the House in 2026 (see my articles here, here, here and here for more on that), I had largely written off the Senate, hoping that in a good year we could gain a seat or two, thus setting ourselves up to retake the Senate in 2028. Now, there does feel as though there is a realistic path for Democrats in the upper chamber in 2026, even if the odds still clearly favor Republicans retaining control.
Looking for a way to help keep the good news from special elections and off year elections going? If so, take a look right next door to Iowa at the upcoming April 1 election in Wisconsin that will determine ideological control of the state Supreme Court.
Liberals currently hold a 4-3 majority on the court, which rules on matters concerning elections, gerrymandering, reproductive rights, civil rights, and more. The election features liberal Judge Susan Crawford vs. conservative Brad Schimel. If Crawford wins, then liberals will maintain their majority on the court. If Schimel wins, then conservatives will retake the majority, thereby threatening reproductive rights in the state, allowing Republicans to gerrymander the state legislature to create a supermajority for themselves even though the state popular vote is almost evenly split, and potentially endanger the results of free and fair elections in the state.
According to The Downballot, Elon Musk himself has spent multiple millions of dollars to try and elect the conservative candidate. Despite this, liberal Susan Crawford has actually managed to raise more total money, run more ads, and is leading 42%-35% in the only recent poll of the state. If you can, please help Susan Crawford maintain her lead in this important election.