Let's Do This: The Ongoing Government Spending Fight Shows the Path to Victory for Democrats Over the Next Two Years
Republicans are going to need Democratic votes on most bills, whether Trump likes it or not
On the evening of December 16, a deal was struck to fund the government through March 14, thus seemingly preventing a government shutdown on December 20. It was achieved through lengthy, bipartisan negotiations between Republicans and Democrats in both the House and Senate.
The deal was a near total victory for Democrats. It contained no spending cuts, and nearly all of the $100 billion in disaster aid that Democrats had requested. It even contained additional spending to help farmers that some Republican members of the House had requested, along with numerous other spending provisions, which is why many observers called it a “Christmas Tree.“
The deal was also a total defeat for House conservatives, who became angry to the point where some were threatening Mike Johnson's speakership. However, hardline conservative Republicans had no one to blame for this outcome but themselves, because it was precisely their inflexible demands that forced Speaker Johnson to turn to House Democrats for votes in order to prevent the government from shutting down over Christmas. Two weeks ago, enough Republicans had already announced their opposition to any continuing resolution to fund the government that Johnson had to begin discussions with Democrats.
As this process was unfolding, numerous reporters were asking the Trump transition team if there was anything that they wanted to see in or out of the continuing resolution to fund the government, and they did not receive a response. Donald Trump also spent Saturday with Speaker Johnson and incoming Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune at the Army Navy game, a multi-hour affair that would have left plenty of time to hash out any disagreements they may have had on the spending bill to keep the government open. However, no news came out of that event, and Johnson struck a deal with Democrats two days later.
It is reasonable to assume that, as these negotiations to fund the government were taking place between Democrats and Republicans, either Trump did not care about or was fine with what was taking place. However, as conservative discontent with the deal grew, spreading from conservative Republicans in the House to major right-wing influencers—including Elon Musk and Steven Bannon—it was almost inevitable that Trump was going to jump in and scuttle the deal, which he promptly did on Wednesday afternoon. Trump views himself as the physical embodiment of right-wing outrage, and as such is likely to jump on the bandwagon of any trending instantiation of that outrage, even if it was something that his own lack of engagement caused in the first place—such as this deal.
So, of course, Trump voiced opposition to the deal, demanding that unspecified portions be removed and that an increase to the debt ceiling be added in:
In a lengthy statement issued amid growing opposition to the Johnson bill from Trump allies and House Republicans, Vance and Trump said lawmakers should pass a “streamlined spending bill that doesn’t give Chuck Schumer and the Democrats everything they want.”
“Republicans want to support our farmers, pay for disaster relief, and set our country up for success in 2025,” the statement said. “The only way to do that is with a temporary funding bill WITHOUT DEMOCRAT GIVEAWAYS combined with an increase in the debt ceiling. Anything else is a betrayal of our country. Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH.
“If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF,” he added.
The statement left unclear precisely what would happen to disaster aid and assistance to farmers that had been included in the bill. The two voiced support for such provisions, but also called for a clean funding bill.
The reason Trump's demands were unclear is that he likely just made them up, more or less on the spot. J.D. Vance then began personal negotiations with Mike Johnson in his office, which proceeded well into the night.
While Democrats were not involved in these negotiations, their votes will still be required, in both houses of Congress, to pass any legislation funding the government. After all, Democrats still control the Senate for another two weeks. Even when Republicans take over on January 3, the filibuster will still be in place and Republicans will have nowhere near the 60 votes required to circumvent it. In the House, given the extremely narrow Republican majority, there are likely to be enough Republicans who oppose even a Trump-negotiated funding deal that the GOP will not be able to pass it on their own. As such, it is heartening to see that the Democratic leaders in both chambers, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and Sen. Chuck Schumer, have effectively said to Trump "no way to your new demands, a deal is a deal" (click here for Jeffries's statement, and here for Schumer's).
That said, I want to make it clear that I believe increasing the debt ceiling is fine, and I hope Democrats go along with it. Even though this demand came out of left field, even though it came from Trump, even though it will make it easier for Republicans to legislate next year, and even though demanding a debt ceiling increase without spending offsets is a gigantic instance of Republican hypocrisy, we should still do it. The debt ceiling should not even exist, as I and other Democrats have repeatedly advocated over the last decade. There should not be a mechanism that allows the full faith and credit of the United States federal government to be held hostage. Debt ceiling fights have caused actual damage to our economy, and Democrats should not play that dangerous game just because Republicans played it in the past.
Despite their efforts to blow it up, there are good reasons to doubt that Trump, Musk and Vance will succeed in removing much of the spending from the bill to fund the government. The largest spending provision, by far, was federal aid to disaster-stricken areas. Even after Trump joined the fray, Republicans from those areas have promised to shut down the government unless disaster relief is included in the bill. Much of the other spending in the bill, such as aid to farmers hard hit by bad weather, and an expansion of our nuclear submarine program, was added in order to placate Republicans. As such, Democrats have a strong hand to play here as they stand up to Trump. This is a fight they can win.
We can help Democrats in two ways. First, we can encourage them to remain united as they stand up to Trump, and to that end I have created a petition you can sign, which I will deliver via email to Sen. Chuck Schumer's office tomorrow morning:
Second, we can help provide Democrats with the resources they need to put pressure on House Republicans. This includes recruiting strong challengers against the 14 vulnerable Republican incumbents who won by 5% or less in 2024. It includes making sure that Democratic nominees in the three upcoming special elections for vacant House seats can put together full-fledged, competitive campaigns with offices, staff, advertising budgets, and strong voter turnout operations. The more House Republicans believe the political winds are blowing against them—something which history shows is almost inevitable for the party in control of the White House—the weaker they will be in all spending negotiations over the next two years, and the more concessions they will have to make.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is the main party committee tasked with helping Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives in special elections and competitive seats. As such, they will be assisting Democrats with everything I listed above, every step of the way, for the next two years. At Bowers News Media and here at Wolves and Sheep, I will continue to provide you not only with news explainers on upcoming congressional legislative fights and special elections, but also with impactful ways that you can take action on those news updates.