Let’s Do This: Democrats Are Already Ahead in Enough Seats to Take Back the Senate This Year
Quick note: Emily Gregory did it!
On Tuesday night, Emily Gregory, the Democratic nominee for the state House special election in Donald Trump’s home district in Florida, flipped Trump’s home seat blue by a margin of 51.2%-48.8%. There have now been 30 red-to-blue flips in state legislative elections in 2025-2026, compared to zero blue-to-red flips for Republicans.
Thank you so much so to the 1,086 readers of Wolves and Sheep and its associated news and activism email list, Bowers News Media, who contributed $14,659 to Emily Gregory’s victorious campaign on our ActBlue page, and likely more directly on her website! This was about 3-4% of all the money that Gregory raised, and given just how close this election was, your donations made a meaningful difference in the outcome.
It has been often said—including by yours truly—that retaking the Senate in 2026 will be an uphill climb for Democrats. And, when you look at the playing field, that certainly seems like a difficult presupposition to argue with!
With a 53-47 Republican edge in the Senate, plus Vice President J.D. Vance casting the tiebreaking vote, Democrats need to net four seats to retake Senate control . This will be difficult for them to pull off, since Republicans are defending only one seat in a state won by Kamala Harris (Maine), while Democrats are defending two seats (Georgia and Michigan) in states won by Donald Trump. In fact, in addition to having to defend Maine, Republicans are only defending one seat in a state that Trump won by less than 10 points (North Carolina). Democrats are also defending New Hampshire, which Kamala Harris won by single digits.
However, despite this, current polling averages supplied by 270toWin show that Democrats are actually already in a position to retake the Senate, as they have small leads in four Republican-held seats: Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio:
Peltola (D): 48%
Sullivan (R): 46%
Maine (Democratic nominee is still undetermined)
Platner (D): 46.5%
Collins (R): 40.5%
*******
Collins (R): 42.8%
Mills (D): 42.5%
Cooper (D): 48.5%
Watley (R): 42%
Brown (D): 47.3%
Husted (R): 46.0%
Democrats are also polling within the margin of error in the Republican-held seats of Iowa and Texas. As time goes on, even more Republican-held seats could become competitive, such as Florida and Nebraska, and possibly even others.
Looking at it this way, taking back the Senate doesn’t really seem like an uphill climb right now for Democrats. Instead, the situation looks pretty competitive. Sure, Democrats will also have to defend Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan, but they already lead in enough states to retake the Senate right now, over seven months before Election Day.
To make sure I am being upfront with you, Bowers Kerbel Media is the two-person organization (it’s just Matt and me) that operates Wolves and Sheep and the Bowers News Media news and activism email list.
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Great. I am already contributing monthly. Just started a monthly contribution against Graham.
He requires a bigly " whuping".
Have to watch the budget.
AK is becoming more blue than people give it credit for, and their implementation of ranked-choice voting has proven this. Peltola is a strong candidate who has already done the "impossible" once before. We have many paths to a majority that just weren't even considered around this time last year. Let's do this!