Let's Do This: Democrats are Likely Already Ahead of Republicans Nationally

An update on the Virginia special elections

Photo by Jeff DeWitt on Unsplash

Last week in my "Let's Do This" column, I wrote about how the results of the first elections of 2025—the January 7th special elections to fill three vacant seats in the Virginia state legislature—went encouragingly well for Democrats, but were not the gangbusters result I had hoped for. In two of the three races, Democrats made marginal improvements on Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share. In the third race, they made a substantial improvement.

However, it turns out that like we often see with results on recent election nights, there was something of a red mirage followed by a blue shift in these special elections once all the ballots were counted. Now, one week later, the Democratic improvement from November 2024 to January 2025 looks pretty darn good:

In all three districts, the pro-Democratic shift from November 2024 to January 2025 would have been enough for Kamala Harris to win both the national popular vote and the Electoral College. It also would have been enough for Democrats to win the House of Representatives.

While Republicans would still have controlled the U.S. Senate with a uniform national partisan shift of 2.3%—equal to the shift we saw in Virginia Senate District 32—Bob Casey would have won re-election. If there was a uniform national swing equal to the mean 5.2% shift from November 2024 to January 2025 across these three districts, Sen. Sherrod Brown would have won re-election in Ohio. If there had been a shift equal to the 10.5% swing which took place in Senate district 10, then Jon Tester would have easily won re-election in Montana, plus Colin Allred and independent Dan Osborn would be in the Senate right now. That would make for a pretty healthy 52-48 Democratic (plus independent) Senate majority.

An important thing to keep in mind about these results is that none of the shift toward Democrats occurred as a result of dissatisfaction with Republican governance. When the votes for this special election were cast, Republicans had only been in control of Congress for four days, so that simply could not have been a factor. 

Further, this pro-Democratic swing was not the result of a declining view of President-elect Trump, given Trump's favorability rating has actually improved quite a bit since November.

Changing views of the Democratic Party are also not a cause here, since there hasn't been any time for Democrats to change.

Instead, the reason for the shift toward Democrats from November 2024 to January 2025 is because Trump's winning coalition in November was based on low-propensity voters who are not going to turn out again until at least 2028. Among the high propensity voters who turn out for special elections, Democrats are already ahead.

Further, given the size of the mean swing in these three districts—5.2%—and that Democrats only need a uniform national swing of 1.1% to win the House of Representatives based on 2024 district level results, it is also likely that Democrats already lead among the projected 2026 midterm electorate. While the midterm electorate will have more low propensity voters than you will find in early January special elections, it will still only be about 75% of the size of the presidential electorate. The entire Republican 2024 margin of victory—and then some—can be found in the 25% of the presidential electorate who will not bother voting in 2026.

This is the flipside of the fragile, anti-establishment coalition that Trump put together. Now, Republicans are losing ground to Democrats even as Trump's favorables are increasing. Imagine how bad it will be for them when, as always happens, the honeymoon wears off and the approval ratings of the new administration begin to decline. Special elections are going to be a real bright spot for Democrats in 2025-2026, which is why I mentioned them two weeks ago as one of my Six Things to Look Forward to in 2025. 

In the short term, the two most consequential special elections coming up are the April 1 elections for the vacant, deep red House seats in Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts. While these districts were very Republican two months ago, giving Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Walz 66.0% and 66.5% of the vote respectively, there is still a lot at stake here. If Democrats can put up respectable numbers—say, 40% of the vote or more—it could actually imperil the Republican attempt to extend the Trump tax cuts (which, as I wrote on Saturday, is already on shaky ground). Even in their best case scenario, House Republicans can only lose two votes and still pass an extension of the tax cuts. If, because of the Florida special election results, the 14 House Republicans who won re-election by 5% of the vote or less in 2024 can see that they will face an uphill climb toward re-election in 2026, those swing district Republicans will be hard-pressed to vote for something unpopular like extending tax cuts for the rich.

If you would like to help Democrats perform well in the upcoming Florida special elections, the best thing you can do right now is to make a contribution to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). The DCCC is the national party committee tasked with helping Democratic House candidates in swing districts and special elections. They can help provide the Democratic nominees in these districts with the staff, advertising budgets and voter turnout operations they need to run competitive campaigns.

Also, every step of the way, at Bowers News Media and Wolves and Sheep, we will continue to provide news explainers on the 2025 special elections, the 2026 midterms, the fight against the Trump/Republican legislative agenda, and ways for you to take impactful actions on all three.

Please, split a contribution of $10 between the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Bowers News Media PAC. Help us in our twin fights against the Trump legislative agenda and to retake the House of Representatives for Democrats in 2026.