Let's Do This: Iowa Special Election Has Great News for Democrats
This is the canary in the coal mine for Republicans
Donald Trump doesn't know it yet, but Republicans have already lost the country.
On Tuesday night, January 28, 2025, two special elections showed dramatic, pro-Democratic shifts compared to the results of November 5, 2024.
In Minnesota, the special election for Senate District 60 shifted toward Democrats by 13 percentage points. In a district Kamala Harris won by 69 points (83%-14%) in November, the Democratic candidate prevailed on Tuesday by 82 points, or 91%-9%.
More dramatically, in the special election for Iowa's 35th Senate district, the Democratic candidate won 52%-48% in a district that Donald Trump won 60%-39%. This shift of 25 points allowed Democrat Mike Zimmer, a former public school principal, to flip a deep red seat blue.
Across all five special elections held in 2025, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris's November 2024 margin by an average of 10.0%, according to results compiled by The Downballot. A shift of this magnitude, if it continues, gives Republicans little chance of holding the House of Representatives in 2026, as it would put 30-35 Republican-held seats in real jeopardy.
A shift of this magnitude also gives us a chance to put a real dent in Donald Trump's legislative agenda right now.
Given narrow Republican margins in the House of Representatives, and a fractious caucus, it was already looking challenging for Speaker Mike Johnson to cobble together enough votes to extend the Trump tax cuts. If we can score two big, pro-Democratic shifts compared to November 2024 in the results of special elections in the Florida 1st and 6th congressional districts—both coming up on April 1st—then we can send the entire Republican caucus a rude wake-up call that could cause the Republican legislative agenda to be significantly pared back.
There are already a dozen Republicans in swing, frontline districts that are expressing opposition to the deep social safety net cuts that GOP leaders intend to use to pay for an extension of the Trump tax cuts. Now, imagine how those frontline Republican House members will react if there are more 10-20 point swings toward Democrats in special elections for vacant, Republican-held House seats.
The two vacant Florida congressional districts are both very red, going for Republicans in 2024 by margins of 32 and 30 points, respectively (source: Cook Political Report). However, that is tantalizingly close to the 25 point swing that Democrats scored in Iowa last night with a former public school principal.
The Democratic candidates in the two Florida districts are gun safety activist Gay Valimont, and teacher Josh Weil. If we can get them the resources they need to run real campaigns with offices, staff, advertising budgets and voter turnout operations, then with the way the country is shifting right now, they can put a scare into vulnerable Republican House members in purple and swing districts that will greatly reduce the scope of legislation that Republicans can pass in 2025-2026.
To help make this easy for you, I have made an Act Blue page that includes Gay Valimont, Josh Weil, and Bowers News Media PAC.
Encourage all those candidates to register their campaign with Postcards to Voters. We have written millions of cards for hundreds of voters since 2017. People are hungering to write to elect Dems!