Let's Do This: Scrape and Claw for Every Seat in the House of Representatives
Stopping most of Trump's legislative agenda is a real possibility
Despite our best efforts, Republicans won unified control of the federal government in the 2024 elections. However, their majorities in Congress are so narrow, especially in the House of Representatives, that it will be difficult for them to pass legislation with only Republican votes. For those of us who are now in the opposition, this means there is still a path toward stopping significant amounts of the Trump/Republican legislative agenda, including budget reconciliation bills that cannot be filibustered. Allow me to explain why with some nitty-gritty details.
Balance of power in the House after the 2024 elections
As of this writing, of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, Republicans are ahead 219-212 among races that have been called. If districts where one party has a clear advantage are added in, Republicans are ahead by either 220-213 or 220-214, depending on who you read. Only the California 13th and 45th districts are still too close to make a determination, especially the 13th.
As such, a slender 220-215 Republican majority in the House of Representatives seems within reach for Democrats, and the worst case might now be 221-214. Either would be an historically narrow margin—the lowest in over 60 years. In order for House Republicans to pass legislation without any Democratic votes, they would need a level of unity they have rarely demonstrated in their fractious caucus in recent years.
Upcoming House special elections will further erode the Republican majority
Even with an already historically low margin to work with in the House, Donald Trump has already named three House Republican Representatives, Elise Stefanik, Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz, to major administration positions. If they are confirmed by the Republican-controlled Senate—and Gaetz has actually already resigned from Congress—that will reduce the Republican House majority to 218-214, or maybe 217-215. Special elections will then be held, roughly three or four months later, to fill the vacated seats.
This is where things get very bad for Republicans. First, with two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump still in office, a 218-214 or 217-215 Republican majority would actually be a majority for anti-Trump forces in the House of Representatives, even if it would be only temporary. Second, as CNN's Harry Enten pointed out, from 2017-2018, in special elections Democrats outperformed Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin by an average of 15 points. If that swing repeats itself, and there are good reasons to think that it will, then roughly 80 Republican-held House seats would be realistic Democratic targets for pickups in special elections. This includes—although just barely—Rep. Elise Stefanik's congressional district in New York's "North Country," which Trump won by around 20 points.
2025-2026 special elections will be bad for Republicans
As with 2017-2018, when Democrats in special elections improved upon Clinton's margin by an average of 15 points, the political environment is about to get very bad for Republicans. Here's why:
It's already close. When all the votes are counted, Trump's final popular vote margin will be only around 1.5%, making 2024 the closest in terms of the popular vote since 2000 (and before that, 1968). So, it is already a pretty competitive political environment.
Democratic advantage among high frequency voters. Republicans now rely on less-frequent "drop off" voters who often do not turn out in special elections. Voter turnout was around 63.5% last week, one of the highest rates ever. In 2026, it will drop to around 50%, or maybe a little lower. During special elections, it will be far below 50%. As Democratic vote share continues to increase among more frequent voters, especially those with college degrees, it is likely that the electorate for special elections will be composed of voters who supported Kamala Harris, potentially by a decent amount.
Opposition party advantage. The party in the White House almost always loses vote share after they take power. This was the case in 2022, 2018, 2014, 2010 and 2006, when the party in the White House lost control of at least one branch of Congress. There is every reason to expect this will continue to be the case in 2025-2026, as Republicans are not going to fix the problems that swing voters believe are facing the country and they won't have anyone but Republicans to blame for the continuation of those problems.
Democratic fundraising advantage. Democrats have a fundraising advantage on Republicans, one that will likely grow now that they are in the opposition.
Add it all up, and Republicans are going to have a very difficult time in special elections in 2025-2026. Even if upcoming special elections do not prove quite as bad for Republicans as they were in 2017-2018, even a mild swing toward Democrats in special elections could spell big trouble for Republicans given their historically small majority.
There is real hope to stop large parts of the Trump/Republican legislative agenda in Congress, and we can make it more difficult for Republicans by scraping and clawing for every single House seat. We can do that by making sure that every Democratic candidate who is still in an uncalled race in 2024 has the staff, lawyers, and recount fees they need to make sure that every vote is counted. We can also make sure that the Democratic nominees in upcoming special elections have the resources they need to run full-fledged campaigns: offices, staff, ads, get-out-the-vote operations, and more. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is designed to help Democratic candidates in close races and special elections with all of these costs, and both Bowers News Media and Wolves and Sheep will be there to provide news updates on these elections and impactful ways for you to get involved.