Let's Do This: Six Things to Look Forward to in 2025
Are you worried about 2025? I totally get it if you are. However, allow me to present—perhaps counterintuitively—six reasons why as a Democratic activist I am actually looking forward 2025.
Special elections
I believe that special elections for vacant seats are going to go well for Democrats at both the congressional and state level in 2025. Here is why:
During the first two years of the first Trump administration in 2017-2018, Democratic performance in all special elections improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin by an average of 15 points.
Democrats have also performed quite strongly in recent special elections, as both The Economist and The New York Times have shown (both linked articles are behind paywalls, sorry).
The underlying reason for the strong Democratic performance in special elections is the party's big advantage among high frequency, college educated voters, and is not really about candidate quality, general party positioning, or persuasion. This means there is an underlying structural advantage for Democrats in special elections that is almost impossible for Republicans to answer.
Vice President Harris actually performed slightly better among college educated voters in 2024—plus 14%—than President Biden did in 2020—plus 12%—even though Biden performed roughly 6% better overall than Harris in the national popular vote. This means that college educated voters are becoming even more Democratic than they have been in recent years, boding very well for Democrats in special elections.
Between presidential elections, voters almost invariably turn against the incumbent party in the White House, as midterms have repeatedly demonstrated over the past century.
Democratic candidates in almost every single hotly contested House and Senate election outperformed Vice President Harris.
Add it all up, and I expect Democratic candidates in special elections for Congress and state legislatures to outperform Vice President Harris's vote share by at least 5%, and often by quite a bit more than that. It is going to be clear very early in the next Trump administration that the political winds are already blowing against Republicans in 2026, and that is going to be a lot of fun.
Trump's approval rating dropping
I have found it odd to watch some conservative commentators take the small bump that Donald Trump has experienced in his approval ratings during the transition as portending some sort of long-term solidification of his popularity among the American public. Um, no.
Winning candidates pretty much always receive approval bumps right after they win, so what is happening right now is entirely normal. What is also normal is for a long, slow decline in presidential approval ratings to begin in the first few months after Inauguration Day. The only recent exception to this was George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks, which is the sort of event you cannot predict ahead of time. So, barring an unforeseen, world shaking event that, at least briefly, rallies the country around Trump, his approval ratings should begin a slow decline sometime in the spring, and continue to go down as 2025 goes on.
I fully expect that, by Labor Day, Donald Trump's approval rating will be under 45%, and perhaps below 40%. It will be fun to watch that slide.
Learning more about American democracy
In politics, odd numbered years are about legislation and governance rather than elections. This is especially the case when there is unified party control of the federal government. In 2009, political news was dominated by congressional action on stimulus legislation and Obamacare. In 2017, there was the Republican attempt at Obamacare repeal, and then the Trump tax cuts. In 2021, we had the American Recovery Act, and initial work on the bill that eventually became the Inflation Reduction Act. With Republicans in control of the White House, the Senate and (just barely) the House of Representatives, 2025 is going to be another year in that vein.
During years like this, I personally learn quite a lot about how bills become, or fail to become, law. Legislative fights such as these helped me learn about the congressional committee process, the budget reconciliation process, cloture and filibusters in the Senate, motions to proceed and unanimous consent. Beyond process, these battles have also helped me learn quite a bit about various policy areas, including health care, the tax code, and energy policy.
Odd numbered years, especially those with unified party control, are a great time to learn about American democracy. For my money, there are few things I love more than learning about democracy, so I am excited for what 2025 will bring.
Major legislative defeat for Trump
I bet we are going to stop at least one of Trump's major legislative efforts. I don't know which one, and I am not going to make any predictions. However, given the narrow Republican majorities in the House of Representatives, and the divisions within the Republican party, I bet that we successfully stop something big. When we do, it will feel good.
Voting
I also look forward to voting twice this year, first in the Democratic primaries for local elections in New York state on June 24, 2025, and then in the general election on November 4, 2025.
Voting is always enjoyable and gratifying, no matter what is at stake. Knowing that I am participating in the selection of the public officials who make the laws that I live under feels liberating. In 2025, it will feel particularly reassuring, because I will be doing it even though Donald Trump will be president. When you vote this year, I expect that you will feel much the same way.
Making new friends
Politics can be an excellent way to meet new friends. From 2003-2005, many of the new friends I made came from participating in Philadelphia-area meetups for Howard Dean's campaign, and what eventually became Democracy for America after Dean's campaign ended. Additionally, I made quite a few friends, many of whom I am still in touch with, from my participation in the early progressive blogosphere between 2004-2006. I even met my spouse this way in 2007.
If you are looking to meet new people, don't hesitate to attend a local political meeting, or join a new online community. If that meeting or community doesn't end up working out for you, don't hesitate to abandon it with no hard feelings, and look for a different one.
Times following electoral defeats, such as the moment we are living in now, can be moments of renewal and rebirth of personal connections. There are a lot of people out there looking to connect with people who are not happy with the outcome of the election, and who want to carry on the fight against Trump. There are innumerable ways, both online and off, that you can meet them if you desire. Doing so might not only provide you with a renewed sense of hope, it might even change your life, just as it did for me.
For all of these reasons—and, if you have any more, please post them in the comments—let's look forward to 2025 with a sense of hope and optimism instead of fear.
Oh, and please consider adding your name to my pledge to oppose Trump without fear in 2025.
I love your optimism and am willing to try and share it.
I remember 9/11. I was working in a medical center in NYC and after the attack, drs and nurses came in to work in the ER, as they anticipated all the people coming in from
the WTC. No bodies came in, because they were almost all dead, buried in the rubble. People looking for their loved ones plastered the walls of the medical center with the faces of those not yet found. The outpouring of grief created a unity and bond I had never seen before, between all of us.
I mention this, because I
see this unity now, maybe not the MAGAS, but for most of us. The grief is palpable and we care about each other and our country's destiny.
So I see your optimism and raise you one.
Mr. Bowers, I don't share your optimism, if that's what you feel. I do hope, though, that the pain many are likely to suffer from t's ineptitude and an R congress and courts likely to ignore public needs will be short-lived, because Americans may just be smart and numerous enough to thwart what the greedy old party propose and impose. If enough people are alert and quick to resist, OK. They (we) will have to rely with generosity on the legal smarts and moral grit of pros to help.