Let's Do This: There Is a Fatal Flaw in the Republican Megabill That Could Stop Its Worst Provisions from Ever Taking Effect
And here's what you can do about it
On Tuesday, Senate Republicans released their first draft of the megabill that contains Donald Trump's legislative agenda.
Despite some differences from the version of the bill that passed the House last month, it will not surprise you that what the Senate is proposing is also terrible.
By increasing the already deep cuts to Medicaid in the House bill, the Senate bill will cause well over 10 million low income Americans to lose health insurance coverage. The Senate bill will cut food stamps and investments in clean energy (and raise energy prices in the process). Like the House bill, it will substantially increase both the budget deficit and the national debt. Republicans are doing all of this in order to extend tax cuts that disproportionately benefit wealthy Americans, as well as to increase defense spending, increase deportations, and follow through on some of Donald Trump's gimmicky campaign promises. The bill is also very unpopular, and contains a worrying provision about enforcing contempt of court charges.
Despite all of that, I need to be honest with you: it is likely that some version of this bill will pass into law. Much to my disappointment, congressional Republicans of all stripes have proven willing to compromise with one another instead of playing hardball tactics. As such, while I expect the bill to be altered between now and final passage, something similar to its current form will probably pass next month.
That said, I largely thought the same thing about Republican attempts to repeal Obamacare eight years ago, and much to my surprise we ultimately blocked that attempt. So, no matter how uphill the path may seem, it is important to push as hard as you can all the way until the final buzzer sounds.
Now, I do have some good news. Even if the bill does pass, it has a fatal flaw that could still allow us to stop many of the worst parts of it from ever taking effect.
Because Donald Trump is an egomaniac who will do anything to hurt anyone while helping himself, the bill is structured so that all of the new spending provisions associated with deportations and building up the military, as well as with Trump's gimmicky campaign promises, expire in 2028. Further, almost all of the cuts to the social safety net, and even some of the cuts to green energy investments, do not go into effect until 2029. Basically, all of the perks happen during Trump's time in office, while all of the pain will be felt by his successor, thus making Trump look good at the expense of literally everyone else. (Click here to read an article from Politico last month that goes into detail on this aspect of the bill.)
This means that if Democrats can retake Congress and the White House in the 2026 and 2028 elections, they will be able to quickly pass a bill that would block the social safety net cuts and not renew any of the spending related to Donald Trump's deportations, military build up, and campaign promises. To top it off, they can also end Trump's tax cuts for wealthiest Americans, thus rendering the bill deficit neutral.
So, even if Republicans do manage to pass this bill into law, the fight to stop it from taking effect will continue on into 2026 and 2028. The is very bad news for Republicans who, unlike Donald Trump, will run for re-election again. As I already mentioned, this bill is very unpopular, and Democrats will be able to legitimately argue in 2026 and 2028 that if you elect them, they can stop the Republican cuts to the social safety net before they ever take effect. Now that is a winning message.
One way to take advantage of this is to make sure that the Democratic nominees in the five U.S. Senate races--Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas--that will determine the balance of power in the Senate after 2026 have the resources they need to deliver this winning message to the voters in their states. In addition to holding all their existing Senate seats, Democrats will need to win four of these five Republican seats to order to take control of the Senate in 2027.
To make this as easy as possible, I have created an ActBlue page that includes the Democratic nominee funds for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, as well as for Bowers News Media PAC, the email-based grassroots activism organization associated with Wolves and Sheep. The Democratic nominees in these states—whoever they end up being—will automatically receive all money you donate to the five nominee funds on this ActBlue page. That way, with a single donation, you help provide the Democratic nominees in the five most important Senate race next year with the support they need to spread this winning message.