Let's Do This: What You Can Do About the Potential Upcoming Government Shutdown

Photo by Etactics Inc on Unsplash

As you have likely heard by now, there will be a federal government shutdown after September 30 unless Congress passes a new funding bill, and Donald Trump signs it into law. This article takes a quick look at the possibility of such a scenario occurring, as well as what leaders in both parties are demanding in order to keep the government open.

A government funding bill will require 60 votes to pass the Senate. With Republicans currently holding a 53-47 Senate majority, and with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul a guaranteed “no” vote, Republicans will need at least eight Democratic or independent senators to vote with them to keep the government open. Democratic Sen. Jon Fetterman has already indicated that he will be a “yes” vote, so Republicans actually need seven Democrats other than Fetterman. In March of this year, which was the last time a government funding bill passed, nine Democrats, including Fetterman, voted with Republicans to keep the government open.

As was also the case in March, Republicans are not negotiating with Democrats. Instead, they intend to pass a government funding bill through the House using only—or almost only—Republican votes, and then dare Democrats in the Senate to vote it down. While it isn't a guarantee that Republicans can actually pass a bill through the House on their own given their extremely narrow 220-214 margin (which will likely shrink to 220-215 next week), the assumption on Capitol Hill is that Republicans do, in fact, have the votes:

“They [Republicans] have chosen not to engage Democrats,” California Rep. Pete Aguilar , the House Democratic Caucus chair, said Tuesday. “So my assumption is that they have the plan, and they have something that has the votes.”

What House Republicans are looking to pass, as soon as Friday, September 19, is something very close to what is known as a “clean CR” to fund the government through November 21. In Capitol Hill lingo, “CR” refers to “continuing resolution,” which is a type of spending bill that keeps the government operating at current funding levels. “Clean” would indicate a bill that does not have specific spending provisions or cuts, or any other additional legislation, attached to it.

However, the bill Republicans are looking to pass is not entirely clean, as it does include some new spending in the form of what is known as funding anomalies. The Republican bill would include additional security for lawmakers and judges, increased spending flexibility for the WIC program, and roughly one billion in funding for the District of Columbia that was left out of the previous government funding bill. This is, to be honest, a bit better than the March funding bill, which included $13 billion in domestic spending cuts.

That said, the bill lacks an extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that were first passed in the American Rescue Act of 2021, and extended in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. These subsidies will expire on December 31, 2025, unless Congress extends them and the president signs that extension into law. If the subsidies expire, it would result in a significant increase in the cost of health insurance for the 20 million American households that rely on health insurance purchased from the marketplace. Nearly all Democrats in Congress object to this.

Most Democrats are demanding an extension of these subsidies, which come in the form of tax credits, be added to any government funding bill in order for it to get their vote. Democratic leaders in both Houses of Congress intend to release their own, competing continuing resolution that includes the subsidies.

The enhanced health insurance subsidies are the key battle line as the September 30 funding deadline approaches. I know that this will come as a disappointment to many of you who want Democrats to make a far longer list of demands in exchange for keeping the government open. However, the truth is that government shutdowns have a pretty poor history of the party making demands actually winning any concessions, but a pretty good history of causing big problems for millions of people, so the truth is this is not a situation where laundry lists will get you where you want to be. It was possible to get nearly all Democrats in Congress to line up behind demanding the enhanced health insurance subsidies only because they are popular with the public and enjoy significant bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.

Donald Trump has insisted that all Republicans in Congress should line up behind the Republican continuing resolution, and that they should also ignore all Democratic demands. So, it looks like we are heading for a game of chicken as September 30 approaches.

Personally, I think that the Obamacare subsidies are a pretty good fight for Democrats to wage. If unresolved, 20 million households across the country will face a significant financial hit. That is the sort of fix that should be demanded if you are going to threaten to shut down the government.

If you would like to help support Democrats in this fight, one way you can do is to sign and send letters to your members of Congress—whether they are Democrats or Republicans—and urge them to extend the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. Below, you will see a link to a form that allows you to do just that. If members of Congress know this issue is on the minds of their constituents, they are more likely to strike some sort of deal around it. Many members of Congress, including Republicans, are already open to this idea. Your activism can help push them over the finish line.

Sign and send a pre-written letter—or write your own letter—urging your members of Congress to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits before they expire on January 1, 2026. Millions of Americans will face a steep increase in the cost of health insurance if these credits are not extended.

Notes on this letter campaign:

• Sending letters may result in receiving email from allied progressive and Democratic groups.

• You do not have to use the pre-written letter. You can write your own letter if you wish. This may be more effective.

• In order to send your letters, you will have to choose a topic. However, topic lists are maintained by each congressional office, and thus I do not know which topics will be on the list you receive. You will have to use your best judgement.

• After you send your letters, you will be redirected to an ActBlue page for Bowers News Media. However, no donation is required, and if you see this page your letters have already been sent.