New Hampshire
It's down to Trump versus Haley. Here are three things to look for tomorrow.
In most presidential cycles, the New Hampshire primary signals the start of the nomination contest. This year, it could be the end.
New Hampshire has been the launching pad for many epic presidential quests. It’s where Bernie Sanders established himself as a credible challenger to Hillary Clinton in 2016 when he defeated her by 22 points. Eight years earlier, New Hampshire had rescued Clinton’s candidacy days after her loss to Barack Obama in Iowa, setting up a protracted nomination fight that would last until June.
New Hampshire is where Hillary’s husband Bill declared himself the “comeback kid” and pulled his 1992 campaign back from the brink of elimination (even though he finished a distant second); where John Kerry and Michael Dukakis established themselves as frontrunners; where Gary Hart launched his robust 1984 challenge to Walter Mondale.
New Hampshire is also where Donald Trump was first taken seriously as a presidential contender in 2016; where John McCain established his supremacy in 2008 after a weak showing in Iowa; and where Ronald Reagan quelled George H. W. Bush’s claim to “big mo” following Bush’s 1980 Iowa victory.
New Hampshire has quite a history.
But in this strange election year, the New Hampshire primary is as likely to mark the start of the general election campaign as it is to ignite a primary contest.
On the Democratic side, technically there is no New Hampshire primary. In an attempt to elevate diverse states to the front of the primary queue, the Democratic National Committee did not sanction tomorrow’s event and will not recognize its delegate selections as binding. That didn’t sit well with New Hampshire Democrats, who defied the national party and scheduled the contest anyway, citing state law requiring them to hold their primary first.
In acknowledgment of the DNC’s position, President Biden is not on the ballot, although some of his supporters are staging a write-in campaign on his behalf. Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson will appear on the ballot, and Phillips may try to claim some sort of momentum if he comes close to Biden’s write-in totals, but in the scheme of things that’s just silly.
The Republican race features Trump as the de facto incumbent versus Nikki Haley, the only remaining vehicle for voters who want to prevent his re-nomination. But as long as Republican voters want Trump they will accept no substitute, and Haley can’t win New Hampshire or the nomination if there is a dominant MAGA vote.
However, Iowa showed us that a significant share of Republican voters are willing to look past Trump. In Iowa, 49% of caucus voters selected someone else. Whether that happens again tomorrow should be one of the more interesting stories coming out of New Hampshire.
I’m also looking for New Hampshire to provide a measure of Republican intensity, and of course tell us whether the Republican primary campaign is beginning or ending.
The not-Trump vote
As I mentioned in last Wednesday’s podcast, the mainstream narrative that Trump romped over his opposition in Iowa disregards how the caucuses exposed his weakness. A former president who nets only half the vote in a contest dominated by voters from his strongest demographic—conservative white evangelicals—faces significant headwinds.
So tomorrow, I’ll be interested in the percentage of the vote that does not go to Trump. This will allow us to gauge how many Republicans are open to a different nominee or actively looking for an alternative.
New Hampshire is not a particularly strong state for Trump. The electorate is more moderate than in Iowa, and Trump is polling about fifteen points below his national average there.
But with DeSantis out of the race, there are fewer places for the not-Trump vote to go.
I’ll also be looking at the size of the crossover independent vote against Trump. Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire permits political independents to vote in either the Democratic or the Republican primary. Given the lack of competition on the Democratic side, it stands to reason that independents who want to have a say in the primaries will vote red this year, potentially making up a significant share of the electorate.
How motivated are independent voters to make a statement about their opposition to the former president? The number of independents voting for Haley will tell us.
Intensity
Turnout in Iowa was the lowest in decades. It’s easy to write that off to the brutal weather last Monday, but it can also be a mark of low intensity among Republican voters. And low intensity in the primaries can spell trouble for the eventual nominee in the general election.
So it will be interesting to see if low turnout was unique to Iowa or if it happens again tomorrow. Specifically, look at turnout among registered Republicans—or the total vote minus independents—compared with turnout figures for registered Republicans in prior contests. If it lags, it could indicate tepid enthusiasm for the frontrunner, especially if we see low turnout in enough future primaries to call it a trend.
Will it be over before it begins?
Late last week, New Hampshire governor and Haley supporter Chris Sununu lowered expectations for his candidate, claiming she only needs to finish a strong second for her to emerge from the primary victorious. This is a serious downgrade from the landslide finish he predicted for her last month.
But let’s be real. Haley is facing a difficult challenge in her own backyard when the campaign moves to her home state of South Carolina, where polls show her trailing Donald Trump by more than a 2-1 margin. Last Friday, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott—until recently a presidential candidate himself—endorsed Trump instead of his home state governor. Haley is going to need serious momentum coming out of New Hampshire to combat that.
After Haley, there’s no one left to make this a contest. Until yesterday, DeSantis was in the running, but only barely. He hadn’t found much traction in New Hampshire, and his disappointing Iowa numbers among the white evangelicals he needs to lure away from Trump made it clear he just wasn’t going to win them over down the line.
Once the shiny new object in Republican politics, DeSantis had dwindled to an afterthought in New Hampshire polls. So he pulled the plug on his campaign before the voting started to avoid the indignity of a distant third place finish.
Which leaves Trump. And although New Hampshire is a weak state for him, a win tomorrow should be enough to put an end to the contest, or at least just make it a matter of time.
If Haley doesn't finish first, it’s probably over.
It seems that the general election campaign will start long before Labor Day. Are the Democrats ready?