Not Transferable
Republican presidential hopefuls face an unprecedented challenge
In quiet conversations across the country, would-be presidents are meeting with trusted friends and advisors to assess their chances of being the last candidate standing if they decide to go for the ultimate brass ring.
We had a hint of this recently, when Kamala Harris decided not to run for California governor, leading to speculation inside the Beltway that she is planning another run for the presidency instead. Other such decisions are no doubt being made out of view.
It may not be visible to us yet, but the 2028 presidential campaign is already underway.
As potential candidates weigh their options, they will consider the usual questions politicians ask themselves when they’re figuring out whether to run or stay home. Will I be viable in a primary? How do I stack up against the likely competition? Can I raise enough money? Can I build a winning coalition? What is my tolerance for bad food? Do I want to spend three years sleeping in hotels?
This cycle, they will also have to weigh an unusual question: How will Donald Trump behave when it is his constitutionally-mandated time to go?
That question will be especially resonant on the Republican side, as would-be Trump successors try to figure out how to oppose someone who has made it clear he has no desire to leave the stage.
In a normal cycle featuring a term-limited president, the incumbent fades into the background once the public-facing phase of the campaign begins, typically after the midterm elections. The president may refrain from the debate over his successor, or he may make his preferences clear. Either way, the spotlight naturally follows the candidates to replace him.
That’s not going to happen this time. It will be sidelined by Trump’s narcissistic craving to be the center of everyone’s life and the cult of personality that’s developed around him.
The problem Republicans face is MAGA loyalty is not transferable to anyone else. And Donald Trump wants it that way.
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