Phase Two
Chaos meets resistance
I don’t know if you can feel the change, but the political mood seems to have shifted over the past few days. It appears we are entering the second phase of the first act of the second Trump administration.
Phase One was what we braced for—the chaotic opening gambit where Trump would slash through government, breaking as much as possible as quickly as possible while abandoning competence for loyalty. The point of the exercise was to overwhelm and thereby demoralize us—to upend so much so quickly that we couldn’t keep pace and eventually wouldn’t want to.
This “shock and awe” moment didn’t quite go as Trump had anticipated. Without question, Trump and Elon Musk have done and are doing deep and severe damage to the country. But breaking things is easy. Owning what they’re doing will be much harder, and after a quiet start, we are seeing the institutions that have managed to survive Trump’s rampage begin to rally. The courts are cranking up. Governors are speaking out. Protests are growing. And the country is beginning to get fed up with what it’s seeing.
This is as we hoped it would be and as it had to be if we were going to mount an effective defense of democracy.
This pushback is happening largely because Trump has failed to instill the level of fear or resignation in the country that he needs to establish himself as a strongman. To the contrary, people are feeling emboldened to speak out. As they do, Trump is pushed into a more defensive posture.
Today, I’m going to focus on what opinion polls are telling us about how the public is receiving the new administration. The executive summary is that polling describes a country that is catching on to what Trump is doing and is starting to recoil in disgust. Collectively, polling data give us important insights into the public mindset that defines Phase Two. If Phase One was Musk run amok, Phase Two is the country saying, “not so fast.”
We’ll take a deeper dive into some numbers in a minute, but at its core what’s happening is simple. Donald Trump won the presidency on the promise to lower prices and get inflation under control. He hasn’t, and voters don’t like that. He didn’t run for president on the promise to upend the federal government, damage programs that help constituents, or undermine our international alliances, but he has. Voters don’t like that either.
This is all very easy to understand. Voters reward officials who do the things they say they’ll do. They punish officials who fail to keep their promises or who do big things without building popular support. It’s Politics 101.
And it’s starting to break through, even in Washington. Under the headline, “Warning Signs for Trump in New Polling,” Politico late last week summarized the state of play this way:
New polls show a majority of Americans say [Trump] has overstepped his presidential authority—and hasn’t done enough to address high prices.
That about sums it up.
Politico supports this conclusion with data from last week’s influential (to Beltway insiders) CNN and Washington Post/Ipsos polls, finding that a majority of the country:
Disapproves of the job Trump is doing as president (CNN: 52%; Ipsos: 53%)
Believes Trump has overstepped his authority (CNN: 52%; Ipsos: 57%)
Opposes laying off federal workers (CNN: 58%)
Feels afraid of or pessimistic about Trump’s second term (CNN: 53%)
Other reputable national polling backs up these figures, showing a majority of the country disapproving Trump’s job performance:
Marquette: 48% approve, 52% disapprove (-4)
Gallup: 45% approve, 51% disapprove (-6)
Reuters: 44% approve, 51% disapprove (-7)
Significantly, Trump’s support is sinking fast among groups that helped put him over the top last November. In January, CNN found that Trump was holding on to the support of 57% of 18-34-year-olds and 50% of Hispanic adults. Then he took office. Now, support among both groups has declined to 41%.
These numbers are not only bad, they are historically bad. The press has always graded Trump on such a steep curve that it can be easy to lose sight of how quickly the country is turning on him. This is supposed to be Trump’s honeymoon period—a time when supporters are energized and opponents largely give the new president the benefit of the doubt. That isn’t happening.
Take a look at Trump’s Gallup approval rating for the first week of February compared to every other first-term incumbent dating back 72 years.
Source: Gallup, Inc.
The only president to have a lower approval rating than Trump is . . . Trump. In fact, Donald Trump is the only president since 1953 who failed to command majority support after his first month in office. It’s easy to forget, but Joe Biden was at 56% approval at this point in his term.
There are two reasons for this historically unprecedented result, and they are colliding to undermine Trump’s presidency. One is the cost of goods. The other is Elon Musk.
The Economy
The CNN poll reveals that an overwhelming 62% of the country feels Trump has not done enough to reduce prices. This is likely because he has not done anything to reduce prices.
The CNN figure aligns with a Reuters finding that only 39% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. To put this in context, Trump’s economic approval rating never fell below 44% in the Reuters poll during his entire first term. According to Gallup, it was 48% in February 2017.
Of course, Trump’s economic promises were never grounded in policy, and now we’re seeing what happens when a segment of the electorate believes him and he fails to deliver.
The one specific promise Trump made was that his tariff policies would revitalize the economy, but polling shows the country isn’t buying it. A majority opposes new tariffs on imported goods, with seven in ten individuals saying tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China will make prices rise.
This emerging economic angst is reflected in the University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment, which plunged almost 10% since January, indicating a renewed pessimism about the economy since Trump took office:
All five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions for durables, in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent. Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell back about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023.
The decrease was across-the-board by age, income, and wealth—but not by partisanship. Where Democrats and—significantly—independents registered declines in consumer sentiment, Republicans held steady. Trump may continue to hold on to his partisans, but as he fails to address the single consideration that got him elected, he risks losing the rest of the country.
Elon Musk
If Trump’s approval numbers are historically bad, Elon Musk’s approval is dreadful.
Musk registers a 34% approval rating in the Ipsos poll, with 63% of Americans concerned about Musk having access federal databases containing their personal information.
The Quinnipiac poll reports 55% of voters, including 56% of independents, think Musk has too much power.
Pew reports that 55% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Musk. And 36% hold a very unfavorable view, compared with only 11% who have a very favorable view of him.
Given how much publicity Musk is getting and how closely tied he is to Trump, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Musk act as a drag on Trump’s approval as he continues to murder the federal government.
In fact, the public’s deep distaste for Musk and the power he is wielding could give Democrats an opportunity to make inroads with the voters they need to reach—if they are skillful enough to exploit it. Musk is a living symbol of why Republicans are the enemy of the working class. He epitomizes greed and unfettered control over those who are powerless. If Democrats want to make an economic argument to these voters that might cut through the cultural divisions that moved them into the Republican camp, it would be hard to think of a better symbol than Elon Musk. The public is primed to be receptive.
Whether you look at these data through a historical lens, a comparative lens (relative to what people were saying last month), or through the lens of individual issues and personalities, Trump is in very bad shape with the public. His support is weak and declining. And because polls are released several days after they are in the field, they are always looking backward in time. This normally isn’t an issue, but at a moment when every day brings a new tranche of outrages, the figures we discussed here only record reactions to the horrors that transpired a week ago.
The rate at which people are catching on to what’s happening is also noteworthy, and may turn out to be important given Trump’s intention to transform the country before anyone can figure out what’s happening. Public opinion usually doesn’t move as quickly as what we’re seeing. That’s promising.
And so is this: Ipsos asked its respondents if they would prefer to see the next Congress controlled by Democrats who would act as a check on Trump, or by Republicans who would advance his agenda. Democrats were preferred by a margin of 13 points, 54%-41%.
Keep an eye on this figure. It’s a good indicator of which way the country is moving.
Great analysis. I just can’t believe the disapproval numbers are not higher.
Fascinating analysis as always, thanks for this, Matt