Special Report: The Consequences of Democratic Defeat in the Virginia Supreme Court, and Two Steps You Can Take to Fight Back Right Now
Earlier today, in a 4-3 ruling, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the congressional map approved by voters in the state and the Virginia legislature earlier this year.
There is no sugar-coating it: this is a significant defeat for Democrats in the redistricting wars and the 2026 elections.
In this article, I am not going to consider possible legal remedies, if any, that Virginia Democrats may have, as that is not an area where I have any special knowledge. What I can do is put the size of this setback for Democrats into context, and provide you with two actionable steps you can take to fight back right away.
The Overview
How many seats will this help Republicans win?
Under the maps that were struck down by the Virginia Supreme Court, Democrats were set to win 10 U.S. House seats and Republicans one.
Under the maps that will be used for the 2026 election in Virginia, Democrats will win between seven to nine seats, and Republicans will win two to four seats.
Thus, in the context of the 2026 elections, where the national environment is strongly pro-Democratic, this ruling will likely cost Democrats between one and three seats in the 2026 House elections.
Looking at individual districts, I expect that Democrats will hold all six of the seats that they currently hold, and pick up the swingy 2nd congressional district given that it has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of “even.” On the other side, Republicans are certain to hold the deep red 6th and 9th districts. This leaves the 1st congressional district (Cook Partisan Voting index score of R+3) as a real battleground in 2026, and the 5th district, which should also be a battleground but which leans Republican (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6).
(I won’t go into what the Cook Partisan Voting Index is, but you can click here if you want full details. Suffice to say, the Cook PVI is a quick and handy measure of how Democratic or Republican a district is.)
Can Republicans hold on to the House of Representatives because of this ruling?
If you combine this ruling with the new maps in Florida and Tennessee, and the forthcoming new maps in at least Louisiana and some other southern states, it does start to seem possible, though still not at all probable, that Republicans could hold onto the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections.
Overall, however, the odds remain heavily stacked against Republicans. Even with all of the factors that I listed in the previous paragraph, I still only project a roughly 3.5 to 5.5 seat gain for the GOP from the 2025-2026 redistricting wars (this is based on shifting two seats toward Republicans from my May 6 projection of 1.5 to 3.5 seats).
With Republicans only holding a narrow three-seat majority heading into the 2026 elections, and with a strongly pro-Democratic national environment at this time, I still have every expectation that Democrats will capture at least the House of Representatives later this year. (I agree with Polymarket that the Senate remains a roughly 50-50 toss-up.)
Two concrete steps you can take right now
Help Democrats in the May 19 elections for Georgia Supreme Court
Democrats clearly need to have more clout on courts of all types right now, whether state or federal. As such, you should turn your attention the the May 19 elections for state Supreme Court in Georgia, only 11 days from today.
In two of these three Georgia Supreme Court elections on May 19, a liberal candidate associated with Team Blue is taking on a conservative incumbent associated with Team Red. (The elections are technically nonpartisan, but everyone knows which way the wind blows with the candidates on the ballot.) The two candidates for Team Blue are Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin. If both Jordan and Rankin prevail, the 8-1 conservative majority on the highest court in the premier southern swing state would be reduced to 6-3.
To make sure I am being transparent with you, Bowers Kerbel Media is the two-person, pro-democracy and pro-Democratic media and activist organization that operates Wolves and Sheep and the Bowers News Media news and email list. The amounts you give to each entity can be adjusted by clicking “customize amounts.” No donation to Bowers Kerbel Media is required in order to donate to either Miracle Rankin or Jen Jordan. You can read more about them and directly support Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan on their campaign websites.
Help Democrats win the House of Representatives
Events over the past ten days have made it slightly less certain that Democrats will win the House of Representatives in 2026, although they remain favored to do so. Now, Democrats are going to have to win more elections on lean-red turf than had previously been expected.
In that regard, it is worth noting that House Majority PAC (HMP), the largest political action committee dedicated to winning a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, has reserved almost twice as much television advertising time in the run-up to the 2026 election this autumn than its Republican counterpart, the Conservative Leadership Fund.
What’s more, according to the Downballot, House Majority PAC is targeting not just swing seats, but red districts in states like Tennessee and Kentucky that Donald Trump won by between 15 and 18 points in 2024. This is the pro-Democratic offensive in red districts that we need, and it couldn’t come at a better time.
I have created an ActBlue page to make it easy for you to help with this new Democratic offensive into red seats in the House of Representatives. On this page, you can donate to House Majority PAC (HMP), the largest pro-Democratic political action committee dedicated to electing a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, and to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which is the national Democratic Party committee tasked with supporting Democratic candidates in House elections. You can also, of course, donate to Bowers Kerbel Media.
Anyone who says the VA redistricting defeat is going to cost us the midterms is doomsaying for engagement and clicks.
Dems flipped 41 seats in 2018, and 2026 has every indicator pointing towards a wave that is on par or even bigger than what we saw in that cycle. The historical average is 27 seats to the party out of power. So the goal has gone from flipping 4 seats to flipping 10-12 seats. So what? The goal remains the same. Thank you to Chris and Matt for your level-headed analysis.