Texas
Since the start of the Trump era, I’ve been asked from time to time what it will take for Republicans to change course and abandon their devotion to MAGA.
My answer is always the same.
Texas.
If Republicans were to lose their stranglehold on Texas—if the state were to become competitive—they would find themselves without the foundation they need to function as a national party.
Texas is to Republicans what California is to Democrats. It’s the state that makes it possible for the party to win the presidency. Without California’s 54 electoral votes, Democrats could have won every swing state in 2024 and would have still lost the election. But add Texas’ 40 electoral votes to California and the states that reliably vote blue and Democrats would start every presidential contest just four electoral votes from victory. Republicans would have to capture every 2024 swing state to narrowly squeeze out a win.
Texas is also a state that has frustrated Democrats for years. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. No Democrat has won the electoral votes of Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Changing demography was supposed to make the state competitive. It hasn’t.
There have been moments. Beto O’Rourke came within 2.5 points of upsetting Ted Cruz in 2018. But for the most part, Texas has been one disappointment after another.
Which is why the special election for a Texas state Senate seat last weekend is especially eye-opening.
On Saturday, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a run-off for a seat in the Ft. Worth area. By now, you’re probably used to hearing news like this, because Democrats have been winning special elections since Trump took the oath of office.
But in a year of Democratic over-performance, this one really stands out.
Donald Trump won this district by 17 points in 2024. Rehmet won it by 14.4. That’s a swing of almost 32 points.
In Texas.
In a deep red district that Texas Monthly labeled “an incubator” for right-wing politics.
CNN called it one of the biggest upsets on record:
By way of comparison, the big Democratic overperformances in congressional races that got lots of attention last year were generally [swings] in the high teens and low 20s.
Also, this will be the first time a Democrat has represented the northern part of Tarrant County in the state Senate since the early 1980s, according to longtime local political journalist Bud Kennedy.
Notice that date. The realignment of Texas to a solidly Republican state was taking place in the early 1980s.
Data journalist G. Elliott Morris put it succinctly:
Since Trump took office, Democrats have flipped eight Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections across five states. Republicans have flipped zero Democratic seats.
The average swing across these eight flips is 19 points. Tonight’s 32-point swing in Texas blew past that.
So why did this happen and what does it mean?
