In a democracy with fair rules, voters in congressional districts drawn without regard for partisanship get to choose their representatives, who are rewarded with re-election if they govern on behalf of their constituents.
In the America of 2025, some representatives get to choose their voters by running in congressional districts designed by their party, pass unpopular legislation without regard for what the public thinks, then turn to their party to draw more partisan districts to avoid being booted from power for disregarding their constituents’ needs.
This week, the Texas legislature began a special session where, under pressure from Donald Trump, they will undertake a rare mid-decade redistricting effort designed to save the paper-thin House Republican majority from itself.
Trump’s goal is to squeeze five additional Republican seats from the heavily gerrymandered state in order to hold on to the House in what can charitably be called a challenging cycle for his party. Trump understands that the loss of the House would pose a significant obstacle to his lawlessness, making him the subject of investigations and quite possibly a third impeachment. So he wants to change the playing field to one that benefits him.
Because each state gets to draw its House seats, states like Texas where Republicans control everything are prime targets for Trump’s tampering. And the best part for him is that the changes he wants to make are asymmetric because they only apply to Texas and not to blue states that could neutralize them.
At least that’s the plan.
The reality is far more complicated, and telegraphs important things about how Republicans are approaching the upcoming cycle. Let’s look at the risks Republicans are taking in Texas and what their desire to change the map tells us about how they’re thinking about 2026.
