It’s six days before the first 2024 presidential debate and as of this moment it’s still on.
But that can change.
The fact that it’s even a question whether the debate will take place as planned next Thursday speaks to how absurd it is to apply normal filters to this irregular campaign. That won’t stop the press from trying. But there is nothing typical about how we arrived at this debate, or about what to expect if and when it happens.
The entire enterprise came about on what felt like an impulse. Typically, the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates would set the dates and terms for these face-offs after reaching agreement with the two campaigns. The commission was planning to hold three debates in September and October, as has been customary in recent election cycles.
But Donald Trump didn’t like that plan and believes the commission is biased against him. He wanted the debates to start right away.
As it turns out, so did Joe Biden.
So Biden accepted Trump’s debate challenge in a snarky social media video, then immediately accepted an invitation from CNN to host the first one. Trump agreed shortly afterwards on his social media platform.
Normally, Trump’s campaign would have contested every debate detail in order to maximize their advantage. Instead, Trump said yes to conditions that will not benefit him.
He agreed to debate without a live audience like the ones that sustain him at his rallies. He agreed to take questions from Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. He agreed to have his microphone cut off if he speaks out of turn, surrendering his favored tactic of talking over his opponent to establish dominance. He agreed to not allow his staff help him make adjustments during commercial breaks. And he agreed to stand at a podium for ninety minutes.
To gauge what’s likely to happen on Thursday, keep in mind that presidential debates aren’t really debates. And this isn’t really a presidential debate.
In normal times, presidential debates are joint press conferences where the candidates repeat their campaign talking points and try to create an ad-worthy moment where their opponent looks flustered or says something damaging.
Then, when it’s over, the campaigns will furiously spin reporters to get them to say their candidate “won”—although because no one keeps score, winning is conditioned on which candidate is deemed to have advanced their campaign strategy more effectively. This narrative is shaped in part by snap polls of dubious statistical significance conducted in the minutes after the debate ends.
Like so much political coverage, debates are primarily exercises in horserace journalism and only secondarily about substance.
Next week’s event will be primarily an exercise in professional wrestling.
Donald Trump does not have a campaign strategy that can be advanced by appearing in a debate. He doesn’t do substance. And his public appearances of late have been—to put it charitably—erratic.
What we’re likely to see instead is a portrait in contrasts, which Biden wants to place in front of the American people as soon as possible.
With this in mind, let’s consider what the two campaigns are hoping to achieve next week.
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