The Epstein Files and Presidential Approval

Collapsing conspiracy theories can be hazardous to an administration built on them

Photo by Ussama Azam on Unsplash

I generally avoid writing about conspiracy theories, but I think there’s a valuable point to be made about presidential approval from the way MAGA is reacting to the news that the administration does not intend to release any information about Jeffrey Epstein.

Epstein, of course, was the convicted sex offender and financier with elite connections who died in prison while awaiting trial on child sex trafficking charges. To Trump’s base, Epstein has long been a symbol of the “deep state” that MAGA expected Trump to expose.

Elaborate conspiracy theories about Epstein have dominated right-wing media for a long time. They revolve around the idea that Epstein had famous liberal clients who were part of a child sex trafficking cabal, and that he was murdered to keep their names secret. In MAGA circles, Donald Trump was not someone who was very close to Epstein (which he was) and potentially implicated in Epstein’s crimes, but the savior who was going to expose the evil and corruption of the liberal state once he was returned to power.

That is, until a few days ago—when Trump nonsensically tried rebranding the Epstein files a hoax that was being promoted by the “radical left.”

This followed an about-face by his attorney general, who in February claimed the Epstein client list was on her desk, only to contend in a memo released last week that, in fact, there is no client list and no credible evidence that Epstein was blackmailing his clientele or was murdered in prison.

That enraged Trump’s core supporters and set off a firestorm that Trump has been unable to control.

I offer this background because, while the specifics of the case are rooted in conspiracy, the effect it stands to have on Trump’s approval could be significant, based on what’s happened in the past to normal presidents.