The Senate Paradox

Why are Democratic senators in challenging races running ahead of Joe Biden?

Photo by 愚木混株 cdd20 on Unsplash

It seems like an optical illusion.

Democrats are facing a punishing senate map that should make a Republican takeover of the chamber close to automatic, while Joe Biden—running with a statistically strong economy against a convicted felon—should be coasting to re-election.

Instead, Democrats are more than holding their own in senate contests across the country while Biden finds himself locked in a dead heat with Donald Trump.

The table below lists recent polling from the five states most likely to determine control of the senate. I selected these polls not for their accuracy or because they are predictive of what’s likely to happen (no poll can tell us that), but because they were the most recent surveys I could find that polled the senate and presidential races at the same time, giving us a direct comparison of how voters in the same sample view the two contests in their state.

The results are striking. Every Democratic senator is leading their challenger, while Biden trails Donald Trump in all five polls. This means that every senate candidate is running ahead of Biden—in some cases by a lot.

Eight points in Pennsylvania. Twelve points in Ohio. Seventeen in Arizona and Nevada. Twenty-two points in Montana.

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Now, some of these are states Biden isn’t likely to win. It’s not surprising to find him down in Montana or Ohio, while being competitive in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.

What is surprising is he isn’t pulling Democratic senate candidates down with him.

If Biden were a weak general election candidate, we would expect to see Democrats struggle down ballot. In an age when people vote largely based on which team they’re on, disparities like these are noteworthy.

Consider that in 2020 and 2022, only Maine and Wisconsin voted for a senator of the party that did not win their electoral votes in the last presidential election. There’s no guarantee this will continue, but with the political dynamics of the Trump era still in force it would be surprising to see many Democratic senate candidates victorious in states Biden loses—especially by large margins.

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So what’s going on here? Let’s consider a few possibilities.

• There’s something distinctive about Trump. Among the 63 million Trump voters in 2016 and 74 million in 2020 are people who otherwise do not participate in politics. Their loyalty is to Donald Trump, not the Republican party. They show up when he’s on the ballot and stay home when he isn’t. If they’re talking to pollsters, they could be telling them they plan to vote for Trump without registering a preference in the senate contests.

• There’s something distinctive about Biden. We know he suffers from low job approval ratings and has just started consolidating his base. But the concerns of voters who otherwise would be part of the Democratic coalition may be specific to the president. In that case, the problems that Biden is having may not extend to Democrats running for other offices.

• There’s something distinctive about the senate candidates. Apart from illuminating Biden’s weaknesses, the polls could be capturing down-ballot strength. Four of the senate candidates listed above are incumbents, and the fifth (Ruben Gallego) is an incumbent congressman representing Phoenix, the major population center in Arizona. They are known quantities who have had time to build a base of support with their constituents—Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans—which is working to their benefit even if some of their voters reject Biden.

These explanations are not mutually exclusive. What’s clear is that some voters are making different presidential and senatorial decisions right now, favoring Democrats down ballot but not at the top of the ticket.

The key words here are right now. Which leads to another possible explanation:

• It’s early. Even with Election Day inching closer, we’re in the very first days of summer, when voters still have the luxury of expressing their dissatisfaction to pollsters. Months from now when temperatures start to fall and the choice is upon us, the disparities we’re seeing between presidential and senate polls will decrease.

Not every Democratic voter is going to get there. It’s quite possible that Democratic senate candidates will outpoll Biden across the country in November. But I would expect to see these senate and presidential figures converge as more of the Democratic base returns home by fall.

For instance, if Bob Casey really were to win Pennsylvania by six points (which is in the range of credible outcomes), it’s hard to see Biden finishing eight points back. In a state the size of Pennsylvania, that would require hundreds of thousands of Casey voters to opt for Trump or a third party candidate or not cast a presidential ballot.

It is also likely that some or all the senate races will tighten in the fall. If the leads currently being posted by Democratic candidates start to shrink, that will also move them closer to Biden’s figure.

But even if that happens, the fact that Democrats are more than holding their own in challenging senate races should be seen as an encouraging sign for the top of the ticket, because it speaks to the strength of the Democratic brand in the MAGA era. It aligns with how Democrats have been out-performing Republicans in general and special elections, making the presidential numbers look like outliers that are likely to correct.

If that’s the case, then we are more likely to see Biden’s support inch up toward the senate field than the other way around.