There Is No MAGA Mandate
And that can make a difference
The votes are still being counted, but the general contours of the election results are becoming clear. Donald Trump won the popular vote but is likely to fall below majority support once all the votes are counted. He should end up with a margin of around a point and a half over Kamala Harris, who looks likely to finish in the same ballpark as Hillary Clinton and Al Gore when they won the popular vote but finished second in the Electoral College.
Trump’s winning margins in the key Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were under two points. Like the last two elections, this one was decided by a handful of people in a handful of states. It was a narrow popular vote victory—much narrower than Biden’s 2020 win.
Trump benefited from post-Covid global economic circumstances that have been turning voters against incumbent administrations of the left and right around the world. He was the only alternative for voters unhappy with their economic lot under the current administration, so they voted for him even if some of them disliked him or considered him dangerous. Together with Trump’s MAGA base, they gave him just enough support to put him over the top.
The result is an unstable coalition that wants different things. As always, Trump’s reactionaries want him to blow up the government and impose the draconian objectives of Project 2025 on the rest of the country. Everyone else who voted for Trump wants him to keep prices low and the border secure.
Here’s the good news for Republicans: Trump is inheriting the best economy in the world and a border that is objectively more secure than it has been in years. All he has to do is take credit for it. If Trump is smart, he’ll declare victory and go play golf.
Here’s the bad news: Trump is not smart.
He is also emboldened to act as he pleases. If that means imposing a punishing tariff regime and deporting people, as he promised he would during the campaign, he risks hacking away at the foundations of the economy and igniting massive blowback. And if he is further determined to allow the folks at the Heritage Foundation to run roughshod over civil liberties—which he most certainly is—he will saddle himself with policies that could unite three-quarters of the country against him.
Trump would not be the first president to confuse an election victory with an electoral mandate. I remember when George W. Bush was re-elected—narrowly, but with a majority of the vote—he proclaimed that he had a fresh reservoir of political capital and he intended to spend it.
Bush’s intent was to use that capital to privatize social security. But he had a problem. That’s not why people voted for him. Bush was a wartime president who argued that the country shouldn’t change leaders in a time of conflict. He hadn’t campaigned on privatizing social security, and the idea was poorly received. It went nowhere.
Trump’s situation is just as straightforward. He distanced himself from Project 2025 during the campaign (even though he was lying) and in those rare instances when he talked about anything resembling policy it was about inflation and securing the border from indistinct invaders.
If the voters who made the difference in this election expect anything from him, it’s to do what the two signs in my neighbor’s yard proclaimed: “Trump: Lower Prices” and “Trump: Secure Borders.”
Get costs down. Keep us safe. That’s it.
Only the MAGA base is expecting him to take an anvil to the government and set the clock back a century and a half. This is the crowd that thinks entrusting Tulsi Gabbard with our national security or putting RKF, Jr. at Health and Human Services is a great idea. But they are a distinct minority.
What difference will this make? In a normal political environment, it would mean that Trump’s coalition will experience a lot of pressure and could start to unravel. In Bush’s case, overreaching after his re-election was the beginning of the end of his presidency.
But we are operating in different territory now. Trump is moving quickly to establish a loyalty regime that will allow him to operate autocratically. This could constrain supporters who find themselves shocked or surprised by what Trump does from expressing their displeasure.
Under these circumstances, the value of Trump overreaching lies in making him look ineffectual and hapless.
Remember, the driving rationale of Trump’s campaign was dominance and inevitability. It will be the driving rationale of his second presidency. Claiming a non-existent mandate for unpopular policies that harm his voters stands to weaken him politically, and can be used by the opposition to undermine the perception that he is strong.
Trump’s MAGA base will never abandon him, and he owns the Republican party regardless of how much damage he does. They will always prop him up. But the way the rest of the country reacts to Trump will matter.
We cannot end Trump’s presidency. But we can reduce Trump’s ability to use his presidency to end the republic.
The Question: How much damage can Trump & Co. do before the midterms?
Recent events suggest that certain high-profile actions by Trump and his prominent supporters, particularly on social media, may be undermining their own political objectives. This illustrates a broader pattern where political movements can sometimes overestimate support for their mandate after electoral victories- which MAGA leadership is appearing to be doing.
As a registered Republican in Utah (due to primary voting rules- I vote for Republican moderates who have a track record for working with Democrats in the primaries in instituting progressive's policies- then I vote for the Democratic candidate at the main election. I figure even if the Democratic candidate loses (which happens a lot sadly- the GOP mindset is really strong here for several systemic reasons), I did my part to help ensure whoever represents my district they are most likely to lean towards supporting and voting in favor for bills that promote progressive policies that give people, even the ones I don't agree with 100%, the best shake at living a quality and meaningfully life and puts people over party when push comes to shove) who in the past few elections I have been able to participate in has leaned Democratic (with that leaning intensifying to even how I vote for State and more local offices, with each election ballot opportunity), I've observed that there's still a moderate Republican base that should not be forgotten about in efforts to prepare for the upcoming Trump regime. I've also encountered close associates who are realizing (which I wish they would have done before casting their ballot- but at least they are seeing the error of their ways now and perhaps they can be called on to help a counter-Trump movement gain momentum in my neck of the woods) they voted for a monster and have severe remorse for their vote for the man... and those are the embers that could easily ignite (given added fuel which is bound to be thrusted upon us all) and become a major, unquenchable flame, even in a Republican leaning state that I live in. These moderates might increasingly find common cause with Democrats if they feel the movement becomes too extreme. Remember there are technical Republicans who want to help out the Democratic cause at this time- we do exist.
While the next few years will bring political turbulence, this period could ultimately lead to a realignment, with moderate conservatives and others uniting against what they see as concerning political developments. The movement's aggressive tactics might paradoxically accelerate its own decline in influence, particularly if it continues to alienate potential allies and mainstream voters.