"Sincere Reservations"

Mike Johnson wins a pyrrhic victory on a long first ballot

Photo by Cole Miller on Unsplash

One day there will again be a routine vote for House speaker. But it will not be while this dysfunctional coalition of reactionaries and conservatives is in charge.

Mike Johnson retained his gavel on the first ballot last Friday after initially failing to muster enough support to win. The vote was held open for about an hour as Johnson huddled with two holdouts in the cloakroom off the House floor.

Johnson contended that he did not offer any deals in exchange for the support of Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Keith Self of Texas, two of three hardliners who softened their opposition enough to get Johnson to the minimum 218 votes he needed to be elected. What he did offer is a promise he will find impossible to keep.

Johnson reportedly vowed to fight for a right-wing wish list that includes deep spending cuts which have remained eternally elusive because they are not politically feasible—especially for a majority so small that three members can hold up the election of the speaker.

Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar recognized this essential fact when he nominated party leader Hakeem Jeffries for speaker by saying, “I rise on behalf of the governing majority of the House of Representatives.”

There will be no meaningful action from this Congress without the participation of Democrats, as we saw just days ago when it took Democratic support to keep the government functioning over the holidays, and as we saw repeatedly in the last Congress when Republicans had two more seats than they do now. But that bipartisan support is precisely what angers the reactionary faction and what Johnson promised to reject. It’s hard to see how that promise survives the next government shutdown deadline on March 14, to say nothing of the pending debt ceiling battle.

This sets Johnson up to be the next in a line of Republican speakers to anger the purists who are unwilling to accept that compromise is essential to governance. A reactionary revolt forced John Boehner to quit and toppled Kevin McCarthy, while frustration with his right flank sent Paul Ryan to an early retirement.

Republicans like to eat their own.

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Johnson was spared a protracted battle for re-election because circumstances are different this year than they were in 2023, when it took Republicans several days to agree to elect McCarthy. I noted in my Friday post that a few counter-pressures would probably spur this fragmented party to deal with its leadership problems more swiftly this time, and ultimately that’s what happened.

Unlike two years ago, House Republicans faced a constitutional deadline of today to certify the electoral votes of their presidential candidate. There was no alternative to Johnson, making it apparent to everyone that he was going to win eventually. And the Republican majority is so small that had everyone who was inclined to defect voted present or for a placeholder candidate they risked electing Jeffries.

Six Johnson opponents registered their opposition by initially not voting before grudgingly supporting the Speaker when their names were called a second time. If they had the latitude to vote for someone else it would have added weight to the rebellion, perhaps prolonging the inevitable for several ballots.

But the inability to generate a greater level of opposition during the balloting didn’t stop eleven Johnson skeptics from firing a warning shot minutes after the vote was closed, releasing a letter listing what they expect him to do to retain their support. Eleven is a noteworthy number, as the threshold for vacating the chair in the new Congress is nine.

The eleven said that while they were willing to let Johnson slip through, it was only “because of our steadfast support of President Trump and to ensure the timely certification of his electors.” They added that “We did this despite our sincere reservations regarding the Speaker’s track record over the past 15 months.” In other words, don’t get too comfortable in that big office with the great balcony, Mike.

Among their expectations are that deficit reduction will be part of any reconciliation agreement, that Johnson will not rely on Democrats to pass legislation, and that the debt limit will not be increased before “real spending cuts” are in place.

We all saw how easy it was to accomplish these things before their majority was shaved to the narrowest in almost a century.

This sets up a tripwire that Johnson is going to cross early and often.

It remains the case that no other candidate can win the support of the entire Republican conference and a real leadership challenge that divides Republicans risks handing the gavel to a unified Democratic opposition. While these dynamics may work to keep Johnson propped up, they should not mask the level of turbulence ahead.

There was a brief moment on the House floor just before the vote was finalized when Johnson was chatting with Jeffries about what was about to transpire. Although reading body language is a subjective enterprise, Jeffries appeared loose and relaxed while Johnson—who had just survived a threat to his leadership—seemed tense and distracted. This exchange may have captured the key power dynamic of the 119th Congress.