We Have Numbers

Looking at major polls all in one place reveals an astounding portrait of failure

Photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash

I mentioned last Friday that I do not intend to acknowledge the Trump administration’s 100-day mark because it is an arbitrary date derived from an atypical moment in history. But it feels like I’m the only one. It’s hard to avoid headlines linked to this week’s artificial milestone.

Besides, I didn’t need the 100-day mark to make the case that Trump’s second presidency has been an unalloyed failure. Over the past week or so, I have written about how Trump is losing public support at a faster rate than any president in recent history, how he runs the risk of being dismissed as incompetent if he doesn’t dramatically change course, and how the opposition to Trump is building in unlikely places.

Yes, Trump has successfully broken a lot of important things. But, as I wrote last Friday, we’re starting to see how all that chaos has consequences:

By moving quickly to unleash his destructive powers everywhere and all at once, Trump precipitated a public reaction that is predictably strong and negative. Had he moved gradually over several years to undermine the government rather than rapidly over several weeks, it’s possible that fewer people would have noticed and some of those who noticed might not have reacted with alarm. A milder reaction would have given him more room to operate, with the possibility that by the time a critical mass of people recognized what was happening it would have been very late in the game.

Still, I have received a number of responses from readers who asked if the blowback is just from people who always opposed Trump, and whether any of this matters because Trump pretty much does what he wants.

For those with doubts, I thought it would be valuable to see what the major polling is telling us, because when you look at it in one place it presents an overwhelming picture of a president in the process of losing the country—and losing his mind about it.

Over the past few days, Trump has had to endure headlines like these:

“Trump Has Lowest 100-day Approval Rating in 80 years” (ABC News)

“Trump’s First 100 Days Are the Worst for the Stock Market since Nixon” (CNBC)

“Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far” (New York Times)

And, yes, it does matter to him.

I’m not going to link to the rant he posted on his social media platform, but I will quote from a journalistic account of the venom he unleashed on some of the pollsters whose findings we’re going to discuss shortly.

He said pollsters whose results he doesn’t like are “sick” and “criminals” and “the enemy of the people.” He suggested his negative polls are fabricated. And he added, “These people should be investigated for ELECTION FRAUD, and add in the FoxNews Pollster while you’re at it.”

Et tu, Fox?

Anyone who watched Trump over the years as a Page Six celebrity in the New York tabloids knows how much he cares about how the public sees him. And he should, because he is operating in a city that smells weakness in negative opinion polls.

That makes the poll results we’re seeing an important factor in determining how the second Trump presidency will unfold. And when you look at the numbers that triggered him—especially when taken together—the rejection is overwhelming.

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The bad news for Trump starts with the top line numbers about how people view the job he is doing in office. Let’s look at six large national surveys—from Reuters, Fox News (it’s a legitimate poll), The New York Times, The Economist, ABC News/Washington Post, and Pew Research. They’re all telling us the same thing, and it isn’t pretty.

Trump’s average approval rating across these six polls is 41%—a historic low for any president at this point in their term. But it’s the disapproval figure that jumps out. In every survey, a majority of respondents register their disapproval of the second Trump presidency. Trump’s average disapproval is 55%, and it ranges from a low of 53% in the Reuters poll to a high of 59% in the Pew Research poll. His approval is underwater by double digits everywhere, and by an average of 14 points.

This is a picture of a president who is governing for a minority of the country and moving in a direction that most of his constituents reject.

If Trump’s standing in late April comes to represent an enduring judgment about him—that is, if figures in this range harden into a permanent sense of his performance—anyone on a ballot with an R next to their name outside the reddest districts is operating in a political danger zone.

And things could deteriorate further for Trump. When you look below these top line numbers, you can find plenty of evidence that he has not hit bottom and is poised to fall even further if he doesn’t dramatically change what he is doing.

You can look at literally any measure and find substantial majorities opposed to Trump’s policies and actions.

For instance, on the economy—which The Economist finds to be by far the most important issue:

• 61% disapprove of Trump’s overall handling of economic matters (ABC/Washington Post)

• 59% disapprove of his handling of inflation (Fox)

• 59% disapprove of Trump’s tariff policies (Pew Research)

• 72% think Trump’s policies will cause a recession (ABC/Washington Post)

For the first time, the country disapproves of Trump’s immigration policies. The Fox News poll shows a 48%-47% disapproval/approval split. The New York Times has it at 51%-47%. ABC News has it at 53%-46%. According to ABC News, almost six in ten Americans object to deporting international students for criticizing American policy.

And it’s not just the economy and immigration. It’s also foreign affairs, with ABC News finding 61% disapprove of how Trump manages relationships with other countries. Reuters finds that 59% of the country feels America is losing global credibility.

It’s also the actions taken by DOGE, with Pew Research finding 55% opposed to the cuts Trump and Elon Musk are making to federal agencies.

The public has picked up on Trump’s abuse of power and the dangers he poses to democracy, and they align strongly against it:

• 56% say Trump’s actions have gone too far (New York Times)

• Three-quarters say Trump running for a third term is out of the question (Reuters)

• Almost everyone is opposed to Trump ignoring an order from a federal court (78%) or the Supreme Court (88%) (Pew Research)

• 70% oppose the federal government meddling in the affairs of private universities (ABC/Washington Post)

• Two-thirds want Trump to keep his hands off cultural institutions like museums and theaters (Reuters)

• 77% oppose cuts in federal funding for medical research (ABC/Washington Post)

What about the atmospherics of the Trump presidency? People are unimpressed with how Trump goes about his job and feel pessimistic about the future:

• 66% call Trump’s second presidency “chaotic” (New York Times)

• More than half feel Trump’s policies are hurting the country, and only 38% percent say they feel encouraged about the next few years (Fox)

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Even if Trump didn’t care about this abominable report card, others in Washington do. A president’s reputation is defined in large part by how the country sees him and the job he is doing, and that is no less the case for a president with authoritarian designs. Trump may be a crime boss and Republicans may be afraid of him, but these numbers should give them reason to fear for their political futures too.

The composite picture is of a president who in every way is being rejected by the country that just elected him six months ago. There is literally nothing in the data that Trump can use to make an affirmative case for his administration. It’s a portrait of abject failure, and in Washington power circles, failure equals weakness.

We could note that it’s only been a few months, and Trump has time to turn things around. This would be true if Trump were a normal politician. But he is neither inclined to do nor capable of doing what the data says he must do if he wants to reverse his circumstances.

The polling tells us that people are paying attention, know what Trump is up to, do not like it, and are yelling at him to stop. Heeding these demands would mean abandoning his quest for supreme power, shedding his misguided obsession with tariffs, bringing in seasoned advisors, and functioning within the confines of the constitutional order. He’s not going to do that.

In the absence of these corrections, we are heading for more of the same actions and policies that made Trump the most unsuccessful president at this point in his term in polling history. And that’s before the full effects of the tariffs are felt.

Trump has only a few months to turn things around before the stench of failure becomes permanent. Historically, presidents experience their peak support in the first weeks of their term. Once that goes, their place in the political firmament goes with it.

Yes, it’s early. But it’s getting late.