We'll just change the rules
The Republicans' abortion problem is emblematic of something bigger
Let’s play Jeopardy! I’ll take “Life after Dobbs” for $1000.
The answer: “Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and probably Ohio.”
The question: “What red or swing states have used ballot initiates to keep abortion legal?”
If you’re old enough to remember last summer, you may recall how conventional wisdom discounted the electoral effect of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, because pro-choice voters weren’t as single-minded as pro-life voters. The thinking was there might be a temporary backlash to the ruling, but it would dissipate by Election Day.
At the time, I raised the possibility that perhaps the pro-life side had been more motivated all these years because they were fighting for something they didn’t have. They rallied to advance an issue they were passionate about while the other side could be complacent because they had the law they wanted.
It seemed reasonable that once abortion rights were no longer guaranteed, the politics of abortion would flip. The anti-abortion side would have the law, but those supportive of securing women’s reproductive health would have an issue that was fundamental to how they live their lives, and at times was a matter of life and death.
One year later we can plainly see this happening. Not only did Dobbs scramble the politics of the 2022 midterms, dissipating the red wave out at sea, it has become arguably the single biggest liability for the Republican party and a symbol of their political struggles.
The loss of reproductive rights has crystalized the view of Republicans as dangerously out of step with the country for those voters who are now routinely providing Democrats with their victory margins—especially women, young people, and socially tolerant independents.
This coalition came together again last week to defeat Issue 1 in Ohio—a procedural measure which would have required a supermajority to amend the state constitution. We talked a little about the politics of that measure on Friday.
So what exactly happened in Ohio?
Abortion rights advocates had successfully placed an amendment protecting abortion on the November ballot. Polls suggest it’s going to pass comfortably in three months.
Issue 1 was the answer that a heavily gerrymandered Republican legislature came up with to prevent this from happening.
The November ballot measure looks to have the support of just under 60% of the state’s voters. So just raise the threshold for passage to 60%!
Easy!
If you can’t win on the merits, change the rules.
And the best part is you should be able to slip the supermajority requirement past voters by calling for ratification in a special election in the middle of summer when no one is paying attention.
But it didn’t work out that way. And everything we’ve learned since Dobbs told us it wasn’t going to work out that way.
I noted on Friday that the fallout from Dobbs shows us that people don’t like it when you take away their rights. And they really don’t like it when you take away their right to self-determination for the purpose of taking away their rights.
This is not how political parties operate when they respect democratic processes and the will of the public.
In normal times, when partisans find themselves on the short end of an issue they try to persuade people to come around to their point of view. Or they try to find points of compromise to slowly build their coalition.
And if they’re repeatedly rejected at the polls—if election results show them to be at odds with the electorate time and again—they retreat and regroup so they can remain competitive.
Republicans are on the wrong side of the abortion issue. Most Americans want abortion to be legal and safe. Even in Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana, voters have said no to MAGA-fueled efforts to restrict abortion rights.
This should be sufficient motivation for them to recalibrate. At least declare a quiet victory after Dobbs and stop pressing the issue.
But they won’t. Because Republicans are engaged in an uncompromising reactionary effort to remake a changing America in their image before the country slips away from them. If their deeply unpopular efforts galvanize the opposition, their response is not to respect or engage the opposing side but to make it impossible for them to get their way.
If you can’t win on the merits, change the rules.
This is self-destructive behavior in a functioning democracy because it is certain to bring about electoral defeat. But it makes sense if the party doing it believes it can circumvent democracy by preventing majorities from expressing their will.
With that in mind, I’ll offer two conclusions from the saga of Issue 1.
The first is that you’ll never be able to use democratic mechanisms to get people to surrender democratic means. Present people with a ballot measure that threatens to take away their rights and they will turn out in large numbers to oppose it. Once Ohio voters caught on to the power play behind Issue 1 it was bound to fail.
The second is that MAGA attempts to hold power will not stop at warping democratic mechanisms to their ends. What Republicans tried in Ohio showed as little respect for the will of the majority as it did for the mechanisms which allow that will to be expressed.
This is not how political parties operate when they respect democratic processes and the will of the public.
What happened in Ohio last week is the latest chapter in an extended temper tantrum by a reactionary element in the Republican party that rejects the values and wishes of the majority of the country. We have a long way to go before that tantrum is exhausted. It’s going to require voters giving Republicans an extended time out in next year’s election.
Most people do not want to live in the world MAGA supporters want to create. Their ability to express their will depends on the survival of the fragile electoral mechanisms that efforts like the attempted Ohio power grab are designed to undermine.