Whirlwind
We're in the middle of the storm. Try to remain steady.
We’re one week into the Trump sequel and if there have been any surprises, it’s that things aren’t worse than they are. There have been no clashes between civilians and the military, at least not yet, legal challenges to Trump’s go-it-alone presidency are ramping up quickly, and Trump has taken a string of actions and positions with significantly negative longterm political ramifications.
More than half the country is not on board with his frenetic opening salvo. His approval rating sits at 47%—below his career high-water mark and historically low for a presidential honeymoon period.
We know how dangerous Trump’s behavior is, and we are well aware of the consequences of what he’s doing as he predictably takes an anvil to civil rights, the economy, and global stability. Under the circumstances, it’s reasonable to ask how his support can be as high as 47%.
But we should also remember that most people don’t pay attention to politics the way we do, and many do not have access to reliable information. We shouldn’t be surprised that a sizable segment of the population expresses support for what they’re seeing in the early days of the Trump administration.
Seriously. Action can be mistaken for effectiveness.
Consider the political moment we are in—the moment that got Trump elected in the first place. Plenty of people are angry. They’re restless. They believe—with reason—that political institutions do not work and do not work for them.
So Trump comes along and promises to disrupt a status quo that they want disrupted. We’re seeing that now.
At the same time, we’re being invited by press coverage to see it in terms of optics rather than substance.
I always like to distinguish optics from substance and treat them separately. From the standpoint of optics, Trump looks to be active and in charge. He’s doing a lot of stuff. The stuff he’s doing is being reported with breathless headlines that communicate how he’s thinking big and not obeying the rules. Supporters will feel encouraged by this, because they will feel it is what they voted for. Opponents, of course, are more likely to find it all terrifying.
The important thing to remember at this point is that the people who put Trump over the top didn’t vote for him to do things that undercut their economic welfare or make them less safe. That part of the story will come into focus later on, when attention turns to the ramifications of what he’s doing. At this moment, visuals and narratives about speed and energy are going to matter more.
We are, I’m sure, way too familiar with how optics can triumph over substance. Joe Biden was objectively one of the most effective presidents in decades, but the optics surrounding his presidency were off. He couldn’t communicate effectively. He never figured out a way to tell people who didn’t feel a connection with him that he was working to improve their lives and getting things done.
Biden looked all of his 82 years, in part because he didn’t do anything to make himself look younger, and because his physical demeanor communicated slowness. Trump is his contemporary, but his bombastic personality and the way he covers up his baldness and paints his pale skin sends a message—fake, of course—that can be associated with energy and youth.
It’s possible to ride images like this for a long time—but not forever. Action for the sake of action is fine until the result of all that action becomes undeniably bad. That’s when optics begin to give way to substance. When life gets inescapably worse, people want to know why.
Once the consequences of what Trump is doing start to take hold, a political opportunity will open up. If we connect the dots between Trump’s actions and the awful consequences of those actions—and if we start connecting them now—when that time arrives we will have a chance to undermine his support, characterize Trump Part II as a failed experiment, and make an affirmative case for why Democrats should be returned to power.
That’s going to be a big part of the opposition in the months ahead—finding messages people can hear and communicating them effectively. This is something Democrats have not done well in the social media age, which is why the party leadership elections next weekend are so critical. There are leadership candidates who recognize the importance of reimagining party outreach and messaging, and who have the skills to make it happen. More on that next week.
Meanwhile, we find ourselves in this unnerving time when we have to watch the destruction of things we hold dear as a significant share of the electorate looks on approvingly. Knowing that it won’t last forever only helps so much.
What may help steady us is remembering that reality always asserts itself in time. Presidential approval doesn’t reliably decline by accident. It’s always in response to what the president does.
And to that point, it may be useful to remember that Trump is doing nothing to address the one promise that voters told him he has to keep if his presidency has any chance of success. In fact, his actions are undermining it. More on that Wednesday.
i agree -97%
we must all find both coping mechanisms and yet keep our eyes on the ball.
yet we have a major obstacle to overcome:
a Democratic Party whose mission seems to be more ‘ I waited to get to this point you wait your turn’ than facing the cold hard reality of the position we’re in
we have a disrupter as president and we’re fighting him with more of the same
thing he came to the party to disrupt, playing it safe
we have billionaires too ; remember how we’ve been vilified by MAGA for Soros’ support?
but we can’t match the impending oligarchy’s clout, not before, and certainly not now
so instead of leading a disruption of our own we stumble
never has it been clearer to me how badly the Democratic party needs to change course. we need to disrupt the status quo with:
national health care
national child care (
screw the tax credit sh-t)
publishing the price of a dozen eggs each week as it continually rises and nothing is being done to address it
a national build housing scheme which tackles the NIMBYism which keeos housing expensive-and the government’s positive role clearly defined
the taxation of wealth , not just income/ amazingly 70% of Americans WANT this
the inclusivity of each and every resident of our country to ensure stability and opportunity for every SES group not just the billionaires
incentivizing corporations to bring back good paying jobs to our shores- including the right to organize
( does everyone know why foreign car makers love building plants here - besides the tax incentives thrown at them? we are a low labor cost economy-and our workers pay that price)
there is a whole lot more - but half ass steps, feints to give good optics no longer work.
this is what America needs
where are you DNC?
still only worried about keeping your political jobs?
that’s the issue - and i see it on my local political scene where the local Dem party organization has been acting this eay for many years
time for major change
on our side of the aisle
NOW
I subscribe to and read your column daily, having sorted thru the numerous organizations appealing to readers to donate; and I so appreciate you listing those on the top of your list. Donating small amounts is something I can do. Signing petitions is something I can do. But to substantive groups. You stand out in many important regards to me including your thoughtfulness. I like that yours is not a foot race to try to out do the president's actions with tired name calling and inflamatory statements that try to win support. And I can understand waiting for the appropriate time to react, but only to an extent. I require your vision, expertise, thoughtfulness to comprehend the why. In the meantime your assured rhetoric gives me a little peace everyday. What all this is coming down to is 1-I have examined the load in your wagon and have hitched my horses to it. But I am old enough to know stuff happens down the road and, in this very large situation we find ourselves, I need to hold onto something I can trust. 2- Not only do I look forward to reading your columns, I count on them to stay informed and grpunded without emotional distress, to deepen my understanding and listen for ways I can help with cofidence. Continued thanks.