Why I Believe All of Trump's Trade Deals Will Collapse
After failing to secure trade deals with most nations by their original July 9 deadline, the Trump administration has been announcing deals (or, more accurately, preliminary frameworks) at an increased rate before its new, super serious, this-time-we-really-mean-it deadline of August 1. This past week, new agreements were announced with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, which added to earlier agreements with the United Kingdom and Vietnam. It is possible that more deals will be announced this weekend, as supposedly an agreement with the European Union is close.
However, I have come to believe that every single one of these trade deals will eventually collapse. And, I don't mean “eventually collapse” in the Ozymandias sort of way that everything will one day collapse. I find it unlikely that even a single one of these deals will still be around one year from today.
Here is the three-step reasoning behind my belief:
None of these deals are actual laws. They are more akin to gentlemen’s agreements. Some earlier trade agreements, such as NAFTA or the USMCA, were passed through Congress and signed into law. As such, they could not just be cancelled at any time for any reason. This is not the case for any of the deals the Trump administration is rolling out. None will be passed through Congress, and none of them will become laws. They can, in fact, be cancelled at any time, for any reason—which is just the way Trump likes things. However, they can also be cancelled at any time, for any reason, by the other party, too.
These deals are only happening because of Trump’s tariff threats to individual countries. Without those threats, it is hard to imagine many countries would be voluntarily renegotiating trade conditions with the Trump administration, at least not at anywhere near the scale of the current negotiations.
All of the reciprocal tariffs are illegal, as the U.S. Court of International Trade has ruled, and as the Supreme Court will eventually rule. The Executive Branch can set tariffs on industry sectors, such as automobiles or aluminum. However, it does not have the authority to set whatever tariff rate it wants on other countries, whenever it wants to do so. This is not just speculation on my part, either. Back on May 28, in a lawsuit backed by two dozen Democratic state attorneys general, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that all of the tariffs that Trump set on individual countries were illegal. This was a unanimous ruling, on the merits of the case, from a three judge panel that included two Republican-appointed judges (and even one Trump-appointed judge). While this ruling has been put on hold as the Trump administration appeals, there is just no way a ruling like this is ever going to be overturned by any court in the country, including the Supreme Court. It’s only a matter of time. Oral arguments in the federal appeals court that is currently handling the case are set for July 31.
Given that none of these deals are laws and that, as such, either party can pull out at any time, given that the only reason other countries are engaging in these negotiations is because of the threat of tariffs that could be leveled against them, and given that the tariffs which are being threatened are illegal and will be struck down by the Supreme Court in a matter of months, all of these deals seem very likely to go up in smoke in a matter of months, too. They are just a huge, destructive waste of time that will accomplish nothing for anybody, somewhat akin to Trump's pointless freezing of $7 billion in funding for public schools that he eventually released in its entirety. The Trump administration will probably even have to pay back a lot of money it collected from the tariffs while they were in place.
I’ve heard it said that it is always amazing what happens when Trump is president, and it is always amazing what doesn't happen, too. I believe that saying will end up applying to all of these tariff negotiations as well.
Here are three actions you can take against Donald Trump's trade war today:
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I wouldn't really trust the Supreme Six. They are overturning Federal court decisions like they're an omelet.
Agreed 99.8%and that is as good as it gets.
Performative BS
Like everything he does