About Those Prices

Why the Trump presidency may have a short shelf life

Photo by Madison Oren on Unsplash

A recent Business Insider headline read, “Eggs May Be Expensive Forever.” CNN told its viewers to expect record-high egg prices for most of the year.

It seems the avian flu outbreak is decimating the egg industry, leading to projected increases in egg prices of about 20% this year.

Imagine for a minute how news like this would play if Kamala Harris had just been inaugurated. Is there any doubt that the right-wing echo chamber would loudly proclaim the spike in egg prices to be a direct result of her failed socialist presidency?

That Democrats aren’t responding this way is a matter for us to address another time—most likely next week, when elections for a new Democratic party chair should launch a spirited discussion of how the party approaches its messaging. For now, let’s focus on the gap between campaign promises and economic reality that threatens to throttle the new administration.

The fact that egg prices are spiking and grocery prices are rising speaks directly to a fundamental pledge that helped elect Donald Trump president.

Candidate Trump vowed to end the “inflation nightmare” and bring down prices “very quickly.”

That vow lasted until the electoral votes were counted.

That’s when President-elect Trump said, you know, it’s actually hard to bring down prices, and—no—his presidency won’t be a failure if he doesn’t do it.

But that’s not how the public sees it. Donald Trump has to deliver.

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Take, for instance, the results of a national study of young voters conducted a little over a week ago by John Della Volpe at Harvard and reported on his excellent Substack. The findings reveal a generation of voters that’s pragmatic rather than ideological and focused on economic results. They are willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt that he will come through on his promises to boost their economic situation, but they want to see meaningful improvements in their lives.

These 18-29 year olds expect Trump to increase job opportunities for young workers, provide economic security, make housing and healthcare affordable, and lower student debt. By large margins, they do not believe Biden did much to improve their lives (even though he objectively made or tried to make improvements to each of these items).

Della Volpe concludes: “Failing to deliver immediate, visible improvements in housing affordability, job opportunities, and economic mobility could quickly erode [Trump’s] current support levels. His relatively strong numbers on economic management (50% approval) and job creation (54% approval) could prove fragile if results don't match rhetoric.”

The dilemma for Trump is that his administration promises to be the inverse of Biden’s. As we discussed Monday, Biden was strong on accomplishments but weak on communication, resulting in the reaction to his presidency captured in Della Volpe’s survey (and among voters in general). Trump is better at the atmospherics but is terrible at governing.

Worse than that, the things he’s doing will have the opposite effect on the economy than what voters expect.

Climate change and the environmental disasters brought on by climate change are hurting food prices and boosting inflation. So of course Trump wants to accelerate the process by increasing oil drilling and withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement.

Trump’s planned mass deportation of undocumented immigrants (and possibly those who are here legally) is a central MAGA campaign promise. If it actually comes to pass, it is likely to raise prices, cost jobs, and depress home construction.

Then there are the tariffs that Trump is threatening to impose. They didn’t materialize on Day One like he had promised, and there is still ambiguity as to the timing and size of the tariffs he might impose, but contrary to Trump’s claims, the Congressional Budget Office warns that aggressive trade barriers would raise prices, increase inflation, and shrink the economy.

Economists of the left and right agree that tariffs would act like a consumption tax on consumers, with 10% percent across-the-board tariffs on imports resulting in a $1,700 tax on consumers. The Center for American Progress estimates that the cost of everything voters expect Trump to lower—food, energy, housing, pharmaceuticals—will go up.

And none of this takes into consideration the looming congressional fights over raising the debt ceiling and keeping the government running after March 14, the date the continuing resolution that was passed amidst great angst last month expires. Failure to do either could damage the economy—or tank it completely.

In keeping with Trump’s preference for atmospherics over policy, one of his first executive orders directed government agencies to take action to lower prices, but it’s an empty gesture without specific directives for how to do it. Trump can posture all he wants about his commitment to lowering inflation, but reality will reveal itself in the policies he pursues.

Trump will of course blame any spike in prices on someone else, because he is incapable of accepting responsibility for anything. At first, he’ll say it’s Biden’s fault. For that matter, he may always say it’s Biden’s fault, but within a few months Biden will be a distant memory.

Trump likes to operate in a world he fabricates, where he can decree things to be wonderful and take credit. But his real agenda is working at cross-purposes to the one thing he needs to secure longterm political support. It’s going to catch up to him.