There are real-world examples where voters continue to choose nationalism over what is arguably their own “rational” economic interests, even as conditions worsen. I.e. nationalism wrecked most of former Yugoslavia, yet hardline nationalists remain popular in Serbia. White Christian nationalism appears to be pretty popular among white voters outside of New England and some progressive urban areas. (As for the young voter survey, if I've learned anything data-related the past few cycles, it’s that what experts think voter opinion is doesn’t necessarily translate into what happens at the polls.) If retirees miss a few Social Security checks, you might see people turn on the government, though.
I have no doubt that MAGA will endure great hardship instead of abandoning their white nationalist objectives, Sharon, but Trump's fragile coalition is composed of MAGA plus a slice of the electorate that is demanding improvements in their lives. I'm focused on this second group, because the loss of their support would put significant political pressure on Trump. And I agree that it depends on how bad things get. To that end, Trump's policies appear determined to extract something from everyone. A Reuters survey shows Trump losing nine points this week, dropping from +8 approval (47-39) to -1 (45-46), which is extraordinary for a new administration. That's before he imposes tariffs.
Agree there were some people who were just 'angry and wanted a change' but not
necessarily this specific change. Whether those people a) turn on him and then he b) responds to political pressure (as opposed to clamping down on opposition) I guess remains to be seen. I agree that losing 9 points is significant, but I'm not sure how much that matters. Democrats are much more likely to worry about political opinion and building consensus before taking action than modern Republicans, who are interested in wielding power to achieve their objectives. Again, I'll need to wait and see how our system - one without things like no-confidence votes or early elections but where money has a disproportionate influence - responds. We weren't able to do what should have been easy things, like tap into widespread support to do something about mass school shootings, in what had been an easier environment than now. I realize many voters may be more passionate about their own economic condition than other people's death and suffering, but it's just a general observation: I'm not sure our system is as responsive to people's unhappiness as we think - at least not when there's money and deep passion on the side with a minority view.
It's one of the issues that will catch up to him, he has enpowered Musk (who was not elected) to lead the Department of Government Excellence (DOGE) that has no rights in viewing anyone personal identifiable information (date of birth, social security numbers, addresses, etc) illegally and the tariffs he will be imposing on our biggest trading countries, not only on China, but our boarder neighbors and partners, Canada and Mexico, which will eventually be passed on to the customer. This will bring down his approval rating, cause him to possibly lose the House and Senate, in the mid-term election of 2026 and bring some sense of normalcy in the next presidential election on 2028.
I'm willing to believe that Lincoln is correct until proven otherwise. Some people will always buy up as down, but believing that everyone will or that everyone always will gives Trump power that we shouldn't be giving him.
There are real-world examples where voters continue to choose nationalism over what is arguably their own “rational” economic interests, even as conditions worsen. I.e. nationalism wrecked most of former Yugoslavia, yet hardline nationalists remain popular in Serbia. White Christian nationalism appears to be pretty popular among white voters outside of New England and some progressive urban areas. (As for the young voter survey, if I've learned anything data-related the past few cycles, it’s that what experts think voter opinion is doesn’t necessarily translate into what happens at the polls.) If retirees miss a few Social Security checks, you might see people turn on the government, though.
I have no doubt that MAGA will endure great hardship instead of abandoning their white nationalist objectives, Sharon, but Trump's fragile coalition is composed of MAGA plus a slice of the electorate that is demanding improvements in their lives. I'm focused on this second group, because the loss of their support would put significant political pressure on Trump. And I agree that it depends on how bad things get. To that end, Trump's policies appear determined to extract something from everyone. A Reuters survey shows Trump losing nine points this week, dropping from +8 approval (47-39) to -1 (45-46), which is extraordinary for a new administration. That's before he imposes tariffs.
he didn’t win with only MAGA
Both times
voters voted pocketbook issues
up IS up
to them
as long as that message is pounded back as hard as he pounds the lies
Agree there were some people who were just 'angry and wanted a change' but not
necessarily this specific change. Whether those people a) turn on him and then he b) responds to political pressure (as opposed to clamping down on opposition) I guess remains to be seen. I agree that losing 9 points is significant, but I'm not sure how much that matters. Democrats are much more likely to worry about political opinion and building consensus before taking action than modern Republicans, who are interested in wielding power to achieve their objectives. Again, I'll need to wait and see how our system - one without things like no-confidence votes or early elections but where money has a disproportionate influence - responds. We weren't able to do what should have been easy things, like tap into widespread support to do something about mass school shootings, in what had been an easier environment than now. I realize many voters may be more passionate about their own economic condition than other people's death and suffering, but it's just a general observation: I'm not sure our system is as responsive to people's unhappiness as we think - at least not when there's money and deep passion on the side with a minority view.
Update: I'm pleasantly surprised by the OMB reversal on the funding freeze. Massive public backlash apparently did matter, at least for now.
Nothing yet has ever caught up to him. I don’t think I it’ll be the egg prices.
it’s messaging which needs addressing
Right you are.
It's one of the issues that will catch up to him, he has enpowered Musk (who was not elected) to lead the Department of Government Excellence (DOGE) that has no rights in viewing anyone personal identifiable information (date of birth, social security numbers, addresses, etc) illegally and the tariffs he will be imposing on our biggest trading countries, not only on China, but our boarder neighbors and partners, Canada and Mexico, which will eventually be passed on to the customer. This will bring down his approval rating, cause him to possibly lose the House and Senate, in the mid-term election of 2026 and bring some sense of normalcy in the next presidential election on 2028.
Matt, you’re a denizen of the reality-based community. I think you underestimate Trump’s ability to sell Up as Down.
I'm willing to believe that Lincoln is correct until proven otherwise. Some people will always buy up as down, but believing that everyone will or that everyone always will gives Trump power that we shouldn't be giving him.
Nailed it
amen
spot on