
It’s not even July 4, and two Republicans in swing seats have already declared their independence.
Late last week, Don Bacon announced he was not going to seek election to a sixth term in the House. Bacon represents Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which is competitive by virtue of having the largest concentration of Democrats in the state. Kamala Harris won the district last year.
Bacon largely voted with his party, but he was a rare Republican who at times would go public with disagreements he had with Donald Trump.
Immediately on the heels of Bacon’s announcement, the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbent followed suit. On Sunday, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis made the surprise announcement that he, too, would not be on the ballot next year, choosing to retire instead of seeking a third six-year term.
Tillis’ decision came rapidly after Trump excoriated him for voting against moving the budget bill to the Senate floor for debate and threatened Tillis with a primary challenge. His decision not to run made that threat moot.
Tillis issued a detailed statement indicating his displeasure with what his party and the Senate had become:
As many of my colleagues have noticed over the last year, and at times even joked about, I haven’t exactly been excited about running for another term. That is true since the choice is between spending another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock in Washington or spending that time with the love of my life Susan, our two children, three beautiful grandchildren, and the rest of our extended family back home. It’s not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking re-election.
When a politician wants to spend more time with his family and he isn’t embroiled in a scandal, you know something significant is happening. In this instance, the timing of both announcements makes it pretty easy to figure out what that is.
Bacon and Tillis share concerns about the effects of the bill their party is trying to push through the reconciliation process. Bacon voted to move the House version of the bill to the Senate, but subsequently complained that, “Instead of improving the Medicaid and energy portions of [the] House bill it appears the Senate went backwards.”
Tillis went further, unambiguously declaring that the bill would hurt rural communities in his state after warning his conference that the legislation could obliterate them at the polls next year. Unencumbered by the prospect of facing a primary challenger, he voted against final passage.
Now Tillis doesn’t have to be on the front lines of the electoral disaster he’s predicting.
Once Donald Trump solidified his hold on the Republican party, obedience became the price of membership. Independent thought is forbidden in a party devoted to the whims of one man and the demands of his core supporters.
Tragically, far too many Republican officials have been willing to hand over their agency. For those who have not, or at least have qualms, serving in government has to be a constant balancing act with their conscience.
I say this without much sympathy, because Republicans could have fought this years ago. They could band together and fight it now.
Or they could run away, which is what Bacon and Tillis have decided to do.
Their actions speak to the foul state of the Republican party and are an important milestone in the Democrats’ march back to power.
As you have probably heard me say many times, political parties win through addition and lose through subtraction. This applies to legislators as well as voters. A party risks contraction when it requires its members to fall in line rather than exercise independent thought. With the loss of Bacon and Tillis, the Republican party has grown smaller.
Significantly, both were on the front lines of the Republican effort to hold their majorities. That effort has now suffered a blow. In what is shaping up to be a difficult cycle, Republicans could ill afford to lose the advantages of incumbency in NE-02 or North Carolina. Those open seats now make it easier for Democrats to score victories in a year when they already should have the wind at their backs.
By demanding allegiance to the leader, the MAGA party is pushing away members it needs to remain in power. It is determined to reduce itself to its lowest terms, where there will be no more dissent—and quite possibly no more majorities.
Back in April, I wrote about five factors that need to be in place to propel a blue wave election next year. Three of them were already there—and still are: voter anger, Democratic over-performance in special elections, and excellent candidate recruitment. Item #4 on this list—retirements from the other party—is an indicator that typically doesn’t come into focus until much later in the cycle:
Toward the end of this year and early in 2026, members who plan to call it quits will start to announce their retirement from the House and Senate. While many factors contribute to the decision to step aside, a key consideration is the likelihood of being in the majority after the next election. Some members of the disadvantaged party will look at the political environment—the voter anger aimed at them, poor performance of their party in special elections, and strong candidate recruitment on the other side—and decide to get out before the onslaught.
I thought we would have to wait at least until Christmas before getting a measure of how badly Republicans wanted to run for the exits. Bacon and Tillis would have been high on my list of members who might have ultimately decided to return home, but I never imagined they would head out before we reached July. Yet here we are, with two high-profile, politically meaningful dropouts hanging it up in advance of the final vote on Donald Trump’s poisonous domestic wish list.
If you want another sign that 2026 is looking like a blue year, this is it.
And little by little, month after month, trump keeps giving decent repubs reasons to quit. Wouldn’t it be ironic if trump wins the majority for the Democrats in 2026?
trump won’t see it that way, though. He’s too busy being a “stable genius”.
If One Big Beautiful Bill passes, I wonder if "cannibalism" will be a top 5 search term in some rural areas?
Meanwhile, the leopards all need a diet -- those faces are fattening.
MAGA