Let's Do This: The Narrow but Not Impossible Path to Democratic Senate Control in 2026

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Can Democrats capture Congress in 2026? As I wrote three weeks ago, Democratic control of the House of Representatives after 2026 seems like a nearly foregone conclusion, given the closeness of the 2024 House elections, the sharp pro-Democratic swing of the country in special elections in 2025, the newfound Democratic advantage among political donors and high frequency voters, and longstanding voting patterns in midterm elections. In the three weeks since I wrote that article, the passage of Donald Trump's so-called “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” has only made Speaker Hakeem Jeffries more likely, considering the stark unpopularity of the legislation in public opinion polling.

The Senate, by contrast, will be a much more difficult mountain for Democrats to climb. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the chamber, plus the tiebreaking vote from Vice President J.D. Vance. In order to win control in 2027, Democrats will have to pick up a net of four seats in 2026. This will not be easy, given both the states with Senate elections in 2026 and the current overall Republican partisan advantage in the chamber. Many of the key battleground states, such as Iowa, Ohio and Texas, will be in pretty red territory that Donald Trump won by between 11 and 14 points last year. Democrats have to win a minimum of two seats in states that red in order to take control, even though no Democratic senator occupies a seat that red right now.

While this is undoubtedly a very difficult task for Democrats to achieve, it is actually doable. Allow me to present the narrow, but still realistic, path toward Democratic control of the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections:

1. Achieve a 10-point national swing from 2024

As I already mentioned, Democrats need to be able to win states like Iowa, Ohio and Texas that Donald Trump carried by between 11 and 14 points in 2024. Unfortunately, in our highly polarized age, there is no Democratic candidate in any of those states—and possibly anywhere in the country—who can overcome a partisan gap that large through candidate quality. So, in order to compete in those states, the first thing that Democrats need is a significant national shift from 2024, something on the order of roughly 10 points.

Ten points is quite doable. In both 2006 and 2018, the last two midterm elections with a Republican in the White House, Democrats won the national popular vote for the House of Representatives by 8.0 and 8.6 points respectively. Given that Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points in 2024, achieving a national victory comparable to 2006 and 2018 would actually represent a national swing of about 10 points from last year.

There is good reason to believe that not only can Democrats pull this off next year, but that they have already achieved it in 2025. Consider:

• The (officially non-partisan) Wisconsin Supreme Court election back in April saw liberal Susan Crawford win by 10.1 points in a state that Kamala Harris lost by 0.86. This election is important to consider, given that it had the highest turnout of any election so far in 2025. It also featured the most political spending of any general election this year. As such, it is the closest approximation to the 2026 midterms that we have right now, and Team Blue scored an 11 point swing in it.

• So far in 2025, special elections have been eerily similar to 2017-2018. Across the 31 special elections held for state legislative and House of Representative seats this year, the median pro-Democratic shift has been 13 points compared to Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share. From 2017-2018, the median pro-Democratic shift was 10 points compared to Hilary Clinton's 2016 performance. Given that Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points, and Harris lost the popular vote by 1.5, special elections in 2025 are indicating an almost identical national mood compared to 2017-2018.

Honestly, a 10-point national pro-Democratic shift compared to 2024 seems not just possible in 2026, but in my view it is actually is one of the more likely outcomes. Elections so far in 2025 seem to portend that a 10-point national swing will actually happen next year.

2. Hold all Democratic-held seats

There are quite a few purple or lean-blue seats held by Democrats that will have Senate elections in 2026. These include New Jersey, New Mexico, Minnesota, Virginia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia. That said, it strikes me as entirely realistic that Democrats will hold every single one of these seats.

For one thing, Democrats were able to win all of these seats in elections that were a lot worse for them nationally than either 2006 or 2018, which I believe are good templates for what 2026 will look like. The current holders of these seats all won their elections in 2020, when Joe Biden scored a national victory of 4.45 points. While some of these Senate races were quite close in 2020, especially Michigan and Georgia, in a year where Democrats perform 3-4 points better nationally than in 2020, Team Blue would be the favorites in every single one of them.

All that said, Michigan and Georgia each deserve a little more discussion, given just how close they were six years ago in what was a pretty decent year for Democrats.

In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers is likely to be the GOP nominee next year, reprising his role from 2024. Unless there is a weak Democratic nominee for the seat in 2026, it is difficult to imagine Rogers winning in a strong Democratic year given that he lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in the slightly pro-Republican year of 2024.

In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is definitely the most endangered Democratic incumbent. However, he should still be favored in 2026, especially with the strongest possible Republican candidate already declining to challenge him. Further, Georgia's unusual election structure, featuring a run-off if no candidate receives 50% of the vote on November 3, actually favors Democrats now. This is because the runoff will have lower turnout than the general election, and Democrats now have the advantage among high frequency voters.

3. Win four out of the following five races: Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas

So, assuming that Democrats are able to achieve the 10 point swing in 2026 that elections in 2025 suggest is possible for them, and that as such they have roughly an 8 point national lead on Republicans next year, in an electoral environment like that are there four Republican-held seats they can pick up?

Yes there are. In fact, I believe there are five Republican-held seats they have a realistic chance to flip from red to blue next year. Here they are, ordered from what I believe are the most likely to the least likely:

• North Carolina. This will be an open seat, now that Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring in the face of attacks from Donald Trump. While Trump has won this state three times in a row, all three were pretty close, such as the 3.2 point margin by which he won in 2024. Democrats can clearly win in the Tar Heel state, as they have won the last three gubernatorial elections here. In an electoral environment where Democrats have an eight-point national lead, Team Blue would be the narrow favorite to win this seat in 2026.

• Ohio. The key in Ohio is for former Sen. Sherrod Brown to be the Democratic nominee. Brown outperformed Kamala Harris by over 7 points last year, and would be a formidable candidate against any Republican in a good year nationally for Democrats. That said, I admit that if Brown chooses not to run, this will be a very difficult, though not impossible, race for Democrats. So, let's all hope that he decides to jump back into the ring.

• Iowa. National swings do not happen uniformly across the country, as some areas have more swing voters than others. Iowa appears to be one of those places with a disproportionately large amount of swing voters. In the three special elections for vacant state legislative seats in Iowa so far in 2025, Democrats have scored a swing of 22 points or more in all three, which would be way more than enough for a Democratic victory in Iowa next year. Further, incumbent Republican Joni Ernst is a below average Republican candidate, as she underperformed Donald Trump in 2020 and her foot seems to be rather firmly lodged in her mouth. Keep an eye on Iowa—this is my favorite sleeper race for next year.

• Maine. After North Carolina, an Ohio with Sherrod Brown as the Democratic nominee, and Iowa, the pickings for the fourth Democratic pickup are pretty slim. One possibility is Maine, given that it is the only light blue state held by a Republican. The problem is that Republican, Sen. Susan Collins, has the highest electoral performance relative to an average candidate of any member of the U.S. Senate who faces competitive elections. In that regard, Collins performs a full 15 points better than the average Republican, meaning that she would still be narrowly favored to win re-election even in a year where Democrats were ahead by eight points nationally. Defeating Susan Collins will require both a very good Democratic candidate and a very good year for Democrats.

• Texas. In 2024, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by 8.5 points. In 2026, Allred is running again, and you would have to think that if there really has been a 10 or 11 point national swing for Democrats, that Allred would have a real shot this time around. That could especially be the case given that the Republican candidate may end up being the state's toxic Attorney General, Ken Paxton, who narrowly avoided being removed from office for corruption by Republicans in Texas. However, this is Texas, which has let Democrats down so many times recently that I just don't want to get my hopes up too high. I suspect that, like many southern states, there are fewer swing voters in Texas than in other areas of the country. Still, in a good year for Democrats, it seems tantalizingly plausible, doesn't it?

All told, in addition to holding all of the seats they currently control, Democrats would need to win four of these five Republican-held seats to win a majority in the Senate next year. Obviously, it will be difficult, but I believe I have shown here that it is also possible.

To make it a little bit more possible, I have put together an ActBlue page where you can donate to the Democratic nominee—whoever that will be—in all five of these Republican-held states. Whatever you donate will be held in escrow and transferred to the eventual nominee in all five states after the primary in those states takes place next year.

Please, split a donation to the Democratic nominees in the five Republican-held states with Senate elections in 2026 that are most likely to flip from red to blue—Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas—and also to Bowers News Media PAC. Let's win back the Senate for Democrats in 2026, and serve as a real check on Trump's power.