Of Course There Will Be Free and Fair Elections in 2026

Here are eight reasons why

Photo by Glen Carrie on Unsplash

Hi everyone, it's Chris this morning. I am filling in for Matt, who is still under the weather.

This is meant as a companion to my articles from Thursday (All the Lawsuits Against the Trump Administration, Listed) and Saturday (Sixteen Ways Trump Has Been Defeated, Blocked, or Forced to Back Down Since He Won the November Elections). All three of these articles are designed to help provide more perspective to the many Democratic and progressive grassroots activists who are likely feeling pretty exasperated right now.

I read every single reply to the action emails I send out at Bowers News Media (I'm not exaggerating—I read every single reply), in part to help me stay in touch with how folks are feeling at any given time. Right now, there is a lot of concern that no one is fighting back against Trump, which I tried to address with my article about all the lawsuits that have been filed against his actions. There is a sense that Trump is getting away with whatever he wants, which I addressed with my list of ways that Trump has been slowed, temporarily blocked, or outright stopped since he was elected. Today, I would like to address another concern I am seeing repeatedly: fears that there will be no elections in 2026.

I will be blunt: Of course there will be elections in 2026, and of course those elections will be free and fair. Further, I actually really like Democratic chances in those elections, especially in the House of Representatives.

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Here are eight reasons why there will be free and fair elections in 2026:

1. There have already been elections in 2025—in fact, Democrats already flipped a Republican-held seat

There have been five special elections for vacant state legislative seats already held in 2025 (you can see the Downballot's tracker of these elections here). Nothing unusual or untoward happened in these elections. Further, four of these elections were held in states with Republican governors, and they all went off without a hitch. In fact, in one of the five elections, a Democrat actually flipped a pretty deep red seat in Iowa state Senate District 36. While Trump won that district 60-39%, on January 28 the Democratic candidate won it 52-48%.

In short, elections are still being held—even in Republican-controlled states—and nothing weird is happening in these elections. Democrats are taking over when they win the most votes.

2. The 2026 elections are already underway

The 2026 elections have already begun. In all 50 states, there are already candidates—specifically, the incumbents—in the vast majority of federal, statewide and state legislative races. Filing deadlines, voter registration deadlines, primary election dates, and general election dates have already been set and published. Thousands of candidates are already setting up their candidate committees, getting their campaigns together, and raising money. There are numerous news reports speculating on possible candidates for key campaigns in the Senate, House and governorships. If you have any doubts about all of this, I strongly recommend that you subscribe to The Downballot's substack, because they bring you news on dozens of these races every single weekday.

In short, the 2026 elections are scheduled and well underway. No one involved is making noise about how they are just going to be canceled, not even anonymously. That just isn't a thing that is happening or that anyone is talking about.

3. States and local governments run elections, not the federal government

Even if someone in the federal government really wanted to cancel the 2026 elections, they would be unable to do so. This is because elections are run at the state and local level. Federal officials just don't have any power to cancel, delay or alter them. For that matter, even if some rogue governor wanted to cancel elections in his or her state, they would have no power to do anything in any of the other 49 states.

4. Democrats are doing just fine in the states

It should also be noted that Democrats are actually in pretty good shape at the state level right now. Excepting New Hampshire, not a single swing state features unified Republican control anymore, even though that was quite a common sight in the aughts and the teens. Democrats control the majority of governorships, attorneys general and secretariats of state in the swing states right now, and are virtually unchallenged by Republicans in blue states. Here is a map showing the current status of partisan state control:

The only elections that Republicans could cancel right now—and I need to add there is no sign of any Republican cancelling any election—would be in red states.

5. The House of Representatives is the final arbiter of House elections, and we have the votes to seat a free and fairly elected House

The Constitution designates the House of Representatives itself as the final arbiter of elections for the House of Representatives:

The Constitution, in Article I, Section 5, clause 1, expressly provides that each House of Congress "shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns, and Qualifications of its own Members."

The House's power in this regard supersedes that of the president, the Supreme Court, the Senate, the states and local governments.

We have more than enough votes right now to seat the winners of all free and fair House elections. For one thing, there are already 215 Democrats in the House. For another, there are two Republicans in the House who voted to impeach Trump over his attempt to overturn the 2020 election. Further, there are a few dozen House Republicans who voted to confirm the 2020 elections, despite enormous pressure from Trump and the Republican grassroots. In short, we can easily get to 218 votes in the House of Representatives to seat the winners of free and fair House elections.

6. The military swore an oath to uphold the constitution, and few support military rule

With all this in mind, the only actual way that Trump, or Republicans more broadly, could cancel the 2026 elections would be by seizing dictatorial powers through the military. This would be obviously unconstitutional, and all members of the military swore an oath to uphold the Constitution. Additionally, only 15% of Americans support military rule, according to a 2024 poll from Pew, which would likely also mean that the vast majority of the military itself opposes military rule. The military is not going to impose military rule against their oaths and against their own wishes.

7. Trump has never even tried to overturn a congressional election, nor will he

Donald Trump is an extremely self-centered man. Even as he was trying to overturn the 2020 election, he made no effort to overturn any other elections. Notably, Democrats took control of the U.S. Senate days before Trump challenged the presidential vote on January 6, 2021.

Trump doesn't give a rat's butt what happens to Republicans. He isn't going to put forth the extreme effort, not to mention take the extreme personal risk, involved in an attempt to seize dictatorial powers in order to . . . help other Republicans. Honestly, doesn't the idea of Trump risking everything he has to help other people just make you roll your eyes?

8. Autocrats tell you what they are going to do

Sally Paine, my favorite professor at the Naval War College (I consume a lot of history, so yes, I have a personal ranking of Naval War College professors), is fond of saying something to the effect of “if you want to know what dictators will do, just listen to them, and they will tell you.”

Trump is not a dictator, but I have found that he operates in the same way. Everything that he has been doing so far as president—impounding federal funds, attacking the civil service, pardoning the January 6 rioters, stoking trade wars, cranking up deportations—he said that he was going to do when he was running for office. He told us, and he is doing it. As Matt wrote back on January 22, none of us should be surprised by any of this. (One possible exception is the Panama Canal stuff, which I don't recall Trump mentioning before the election.)

Trump has never said that he was going to cancel elections and seize control via the military, and honestly I think that is because he has no intention of doing so. Attempting it could cost him his fortune, his prestige, his power, even his life. It's just a crazy, ridiculous risk that he is not going to bother engaging in.

(Side note: Given that Xi Jinping has been saying that he intends to move against Taiwan in 2027, Dr. Paine's advice about listening to dictators in order to learn what they will do makes me pretty nervous. Trump is very isolationist, and his top advisor, Elon Musk, is pretty anti-Taiwan and pro-Chinese Communist Party. So, that's something to be ready for in about two years).

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I try to offer grassroots Democrats reassurance with my articles. However, I am not here to put a positive spin on everything. What I try to do instead is to provide a clearer, broader, and deeper perspective than the one offered up by the intentionally anxiety-inducing, swirling churn of the daily news cycle. I also try to share advice that I have gleaned from my over two decades in politics on how to keep a clear head while engaging in political activism over the long run.

One such piece of advice is that you should not dwell in far-fetched doomsday scenarios, or give in to cynical exasperation. That is counterproductive from an activism perspective, and counterproductive from a mental health perspective, too. There is honestly no good reason to think that the 2026 elections are going to be cancelled. November 3, 2026 is likely to be a very good day for Democrats, and I look forward to watching the returns come in that night.