There is Another Fatal Flaw in the Republican Megabill
Spoiler alert: It defunds red America
On Thursday, I published an article titled “There Is a Fatal Flaw in the Republican Megabill That Could Stop Its Worst Provisions from Ever Taking Effect.” In that article, I focused on how the cuts to Medicaid and food stamps in the Republican megabill largely do not kick in until 2029, making it possible for Democrats to reverse them via legislation in 2029 if the 2026 and 2028 elections go well.
However, there is also a second fatal flaw in the Republican megabill: It defunds red America. There are two major ways this is the case:
Clean energy investments cut by the megabill would have overwhelmingly benefited red districts
One of the main sources of revenue—approximately $193 billion—that the megabill will use to pay for an extension of tax cuts that disproportionately benefit wealthy Americans comes from cutting tax breaks on clean energy projects that were passed in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. An analysis from Politico indicates that roughly three-quarters of the 794 projects that would have been built because of these credits are planned in House districts controlled by Republicans.
Medicaid cuts would hit rural hospitals particularly hard
Another key way that the megabill will offset the cost of tax breaks for wealthy Americans is by reducing the so called Medicaid provider tax. This tax is somewhat difficult to explain, but in short it is a key way that Medicaid is funded. NBC News has an explainer on the Medicaid provider tax here.
An analysis published last week by KFF showed that cutting the provider tax will have a disproportionately negative impact on rural hospitals. Once again, this means that the megabill is making steep cuts to red America in order to extend tax cuts that disproportionately benefit wealthy Americans.
Notably, while the bill makes these two major cuts that will impact red America far more than blue America, the bill will also likely include an increase on the cap to the state and local tax deduction. This is a change that will disproportionately benefit blue America, as wealthier suburbs in blue states have increasingly trended toward Democrats in recent electoral cycles.
All told, if this bill passes, it is going to be difficult for Republicans who are running for re-election in 2026 and 2028 to explain to their constituents why they voted for cuts that disproportionately impacted their own constituents. By contrast, because many of these cuts are delayed until 2028 or 2029, the Democrats who are challenging these incumbent Republicans in purple and red areas will be able to make a pretty strong case that if they are elected, they can reverse the cuts in 2029 before they ever really take hold.
One way to take advantage of this is to make sure that the Democratic nominees in five U.S. Senate races currently held by Republicans—Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas—have the resources they need to let voters in those states know that a vote for a Republican is a vote to defund the place where they live.
To make this as easy as possible, I have created an ActBlue page that includes the Democratic nominee funds for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, as well as for Bowers News Media PAC. The Democratic nominees in these states—whoever they end up being—will automatically receive all money you donate to the five nominee funds on this ActBlue page. That way, with a single donation, you help provide the Democratic nominees in five of the most important Senate races next year with the support they will need to spread the word about how Republicans are defunding their own states.