Unsustainable

It's hard to see how Republicans survive six more months of this

Photo by Armands Brants on Unsplash

Here are two headlines from The Hill newspaper that sum up the situation facing Republicans with the 2026 midterms now six months away:

• GOP Tries to Ease Growing Fears of Midterm Shellacking

• Republicans Warn DeSantis’s Florida Redistricting Push ‘Fraught with Peril’

The first headline fronts a story about how Republicans are growing anxious about “potentially widespread midterm losses” after Democrats pulled off a victory in last Tuesday’s Virginia redistricting vote. But they don’t know what to do about it.

The second headline links to a story about how Republicans are divided over the wisdom of clawing back seats they lost in Virginia by gerrymandering Florida, because of fears that moving Republican voters from currently safe red districts could put them in play if that shellacking materializes.

Now, I’m not in the business of offering advice to Republicans. But I think I can be of some assistance here.

Republicans—you have a serious problem.

His name is Donald Trump.

He’s the thing you need to do something about.

Because it should be pretty clear that if you don’t do something about him—and fast—your political standing this April is going to look like the good old days when November rolls around.

Here is what Trump is doing to you:

In the CNN polling average as of last week, Trump’s job approval sits at 37%. His disapproval is 62%.

And here are the results of the individual polls included in that average that had data collected in April:

• CBS (April 8-10): Approve 39%, Disapprove 61%

• Marquette (April 8-16): Approve 39%, Disapprove 60%

• Quinnnipiac (April 9-13): Approve 38%, Disapprove 55%

• NBC (March 30-April 13): Approve 37%, Disapprove 63%

• Reuters/Ipsos (April 15-20): Approve 36%, Disapprove 62%

• Strength in Numbers (April 10-14): Approve 35%, Disapprove 61%

• AP-NORC (April 16-20): Approve 33%, Disapprove 67%

This puts Trump’s approval in the neighborhood of Joe Biden’s approval when Democrats pressured him out of the 2024 presidential race, or where Lyndon Johnson was when he decided not to seek re-election in 1968.

Trump’s 62% average job disapproval is actually higher than Biden’s when he withdrew from contention.

And these figures look stellar compared to how people view Trump’s performance handling the economy, which in one poll hit 30%. That’s just three in ten Americans saying they approve of the job Trump is doing on the matter that repeatedly registers as the most important issue with voters.

To say Trump is an anchor dragging down the Republican party is simply to state the obvious.

And is there any reason to believe it isn’t going to get worse?

Is there reason to believe gas prices won’t continue to be high—or go higher—with Trump in a corner in Iran? Is there reason to believe inflation will abate? That healthcare will suddenly become available and affordable?

Even if nothing changed, the anger and unease people feel now will only deepen by Election Day.

If it was credible to believe that Trump could change course, then it might still be possible for Republicans to avoid the worst of what’s coming. But that would mean believing Trump will suddenly admit to his failures. We have seen enough to know he is incapable of doing that.

Instead, it appears Republicans intend to run on their record.

Seriously.

Here’s what James Blair, the former Trump deputy chief of staff, told CNN, according to The Hill:

Blair, who left the White House staff this month to shore up the GOP’s campaign operation, told CNN the midterm strategy was not about Trump but rather the policies he and Republicans have implemented, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

“It’s not about making it a referendum on the president or not. It comes down to the policies that President Trump and the Republicans have put in place,” Blair said.

“We inherited a four-decade-high inflation,” he continued. “Voters have memory of that, and the question is, do we want to go back to that or do we want to go forward and finish this job?”

“I believe when that’s litigated for the voters, they will choose Republicans,” he said.

We can unpack the levels of denial in this statement, but all we need to do is point to the data above. It’s more accurate to say congressional Republicans will be painted—appropriately—as rubber stamping every one of Trump’s deeply unpopular policies.

With six months to go to the election, public opinion is already hardening. We will reach a point, likely this summer, when it will be impossible for Republicans to do anything to change their fate.

Even now there is only so much they can do. An about-face might mitigate some of the potential damage, but they are carrying too much baggage to turn things around.

Which is why it’s almost impossible to imagine what six more months of this will bring.

So if it’s true that, as The Hill reports, Republicans are struggling to figure out how to nudge their way back from the edge of the cliff, might I suggest the obvious?

Six more months of MAGA governance is unsustainable for them politically.

If they want to take the edge off that shellacking they see coming their way, they have only one move.

But it’s the one thing they have always refused to do.

The one thing they won’t do.

The one thing they can’t do.

Donald Trump is about to bring down the Republican party.

Cut him loose.