Building a Wave: Georgia
Brian Kemp's decision about 2026 is significant for two reasons
Earlier this week, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp decided he was going to forgo a run for the U.S. Senate next year, dashing the hopes of national Republicans who saw Kemp—correctly—as the strongest contender against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff.
Kemp’s move adds to the evidence that we could be building to a blue wave in 2026 while increasing the likelihood that a wave will happen.
In his announcement, Kemp invoked the time-honored trope of doing what’s best for his wife and kids: “I have decided that being on the ballot next year is not the right decision for me and my family.”
When an ambitious politician says they’re putting their family ahead of chasing a coveted position, it’s a sure bet they believe the road to that position will be filled with potholes or the destination won’t be much of a prize. For Kemp, who likely sees himself as a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in an as-yet unimaginable post-Trump world, the prospect of getting into next year’s Senate race poses more risk than reward.
Looking at why that is tells us something important about the contours of the political environment taking shape during the second Trump presidency and the prospects for a Democratic wave in 2026.
Kemp’s decision aligns with other evidence that Democrats are ascendant
Last month, I looked at five prerequisites to an electoral wave and suggested that candidate recruitment and incumbent retirements offer an early gauge of whether next year’s elections are likely to tilt strongly toward Democrats. When a great year appears to be shaping up for one party, it’s easier for them to recruit strong candidates to run in states and districts that might be considered a reach in more competitive years. Simultaneously, the party that risks being buried under a wave will see a disproportionate number of incumbents retire rather than swim against the tide.
Kemp’s decision reflects these two factors. While Democratic recruitment is surging, you have a strong Republican contender saying no to his party in a prominent blow to national recruiting efforts. And by demurring, Kemp took himself out of the arena in a manner not unlike incumbents who elect to step aside.
The fact that it happened in Georgia adds to the significance of Kemp’s decision. Republicans currently hold a three-seat advantage in the Senate, and would need to lose four seats to surrender control of the chamber to Democrats. Given the challenges Democrats face with the 2026 electoral map, they realistically have to hold all their incumbent seats to have any chance of flipping the chamber. Having a strong Republican contender face off against a vulnerable Democrat in a swing state that Donald Trump won just six months ago would make their job especially difficult.
Now that’s not going to happen.
So why would Kemp pass up an opportunity to run for Senate when polling showed him to be well positioned to win? Two possibilities come to mind.
One is that Kemp—who angered MAGA by resisting Trump’s demands not to certify the 2020 election in Georgia—could lose a primary to a MAGA-friendly candidate and damage his future political prospects.
Another is that Kemp sees the dysfunction in Congress and doesn’t want to be part of it. That would be a rational decision.
Either way, Kemp appears to be keeping his options open for a presidential run in a couple of years. Why he would expect to survive a presidential primary if he is concerned about making it through a Senate primary is hard to know, but it’s telling that Kemp doesn’t think engaging in the Senate race will advance his ambitions.
And as for national Republicans, they now run the risk of letting an opportunity slip away, especially if primary voters select someone who is closely wedded to the MAGA agenda in a cycle when that’s looking like a tremendous liability. Which is what happens in a year when a party is in trouble.
Kemp’s decision makes it more likely that Democrats will be ascendant
With Georgia not as much at risk for Democrats as it would have been had Kemp run and prevailed in the primary, that goal of holding on to every existing seat becomes a lot more realistic.
Besides Ossoff, the only other seat held by Democrats in a state that Trump won is in Michigan, where Gary Peters is retiring. This means Democrats will have to hold a swing state seat without the advantage of incumbency. This would point to a close race if the two parties were evenly balanced and present a big challenge if Republicans were ascendant. But in a political environment that leans blue, holding Michigan should be well within the realm of the possible.
Beyond Michigan, Democrats have to defend open seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire—both of which supported Kamala Harris—and Illinois, which is safely blue. There could be additional retirements before next year, but at this point it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Democrats hold on to all their incumbent seats if the wind is at their backs.
That would leave Democrats in a position to go on offense and try to pick up the seats they need to reclaim the Senate. On this count, the map doesn’t give them a lot to work with. Even though Republicans are defending nine more seats than Democrats, most of them are in red states that weren’t particularly close last fall.
Their best chances are in Maine—where Susan Collins has proved resilient in the past but is suffering from low job approval numbers—and North Carolina, a state where Democrats did extremely well down ballot in 2024 and incumbent Thom Tillis, who was narrowly elected in 2014 and 2020, is vulnerable.
Even if Democrats manage to pick off the elusive Collins and find a way to win in North Carolina, they will need to venture deeper into red territory to pick up the two more seats they need for control. There are some interesting possibilities, which Chris has discussed, including Iowa, Alaska, Texas and Ohio—all of which will come into focus as the political cycle advances.
What we know now is that the only realistic way for Democrats to secure the victories they need to take the Senate would be for a wave to develop. And that’s why Kemp’s choice to stay on the sidelines is so important. With no margin for error, Democrats need all the breathing room they can find. Kemp has given them some.
This is the virtuous cycle of the wave. Circumstances unfavorable to the opposition make it unappealing for good candidates to run, making it that much harder for the opposition to win. The political environment Donald Trump has created is starting to feed on itself, at the risk of consuming his party.
Very good news for Senator Ossoff and the rest of us!
Kemp shot himself in the foot. He will look now like a pussy who is trying to avoid a risky campaign. That's likely to be reflected in '28.
As I have said elsewhere, Kemp did not watch the movie: he looked up. He saw the comet, or the avalanche, and he's trying to avoid them, and in a very cowardly way.
I agree with him that he's increasingly unlikely to win, but to avoid the battle? If I were a Kemp supporter, I'd give up on him in a flash.