Episode 22: Everything Has Changed and Nothing Has Changed

When I left for an extended summer vacation in mid-July, Joe Biden was the Democratic presidential nominee-apparent, his party was self-destructing over the question of whether he should retain that status, doubts about the president were showing up in polls, and Trump was planning for a landslide victory after having survived an assassination attempt. That was a little over two weeks ago. Today, as I wait out a two-day delay for a flight home, Kamala Harris is the Democratic presidential nominee, her party is more united than ever, and she has surged ahead in the polls, while Trump has had no answer for her early success, received no polling boost from the attempt on his life or the Republican convention, and saddled himself with perhaps the worst vice presidential pick in history (which is really saying something). Still, through all these dramatic changes in the electoral environment, the fundamentals of the contest remain consistent. On today’s podcast, we’ll consider both continuity and change in the election after the political earthquakes of the past few weeks.